With soaring oil and gas prices relentlessly pushing up energy bills, it’s never been clearer that the UK, like all countries, must urgently pivot away from economic reliance on fossil fuels. Recent debates around the approval of the Jackdaw gas field have highlighted a broader domestic challenge – how can the UK reduce its reliance on fossil fuels while protecting jobs, strengthening energy security and growing the economy?
The good news is that Britain is already much further along than many countries. The UK has established ambitious, legally binding plans for boosting clean power, electric vehicles, industrial decarbonisation, energy efficiency and low-carbon heating, including through one of the most comprehensive legally-binding emissions reductions plans in the world, the Climate Change Committee (CCC)’s seventh carbon budget (CB7).
Policies and plans for managing UK oil and gas production do exist, but lack the equivalent quantitative targets and detailed implementation plans to those in CB7. The UK’s North Sea field is entering a period of sharp structural decline, with around 90% of the basin having already been drained, production falling, and oil and gas revenues projected to drop by 98% in the next five years. The challenge is therefore no longer how to maximise dependence on fossil fuels, but how to manage a successful transition beyond them, and crucially, how to maximise and fairly distribute the benefits of the transition.
What is missing is a coherent single framework which brings policies to wean the UK off fossil fuel demand together with plans for reducing fossil fuel production in the North Sea into a politically credible, long-term pathway. This document – a roadmap on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels (TAFF) – would not only provide a clear, long-term domestic policy signal, but allow the UK to demonstrate its continued international leadership on climate change and the energy transition.
Many countries have been exploring or are already in the process of developing roadmaps (including France, Germany and the Netherlands, and the Pacific) since the concept emerged at COP30 in Brazil, with more likely to be announced at COP31, kicking off in Antalya, Türkiye, next week. To be credible and lead to genuine impact, however, roadmaps must be sufficiently detailed, ambitious and financeable, and be backed by the whole of government. This takes time, resources, and political capital – but a strong, slower-produced roadmap is better than a quick, weak one. So while the UK shouldn’t be expected to present a fully-fledged roadmap in Antalya, COP31 does provide a clear opportunity to clearly signal intent to develop one.
Every TAFF roadmap will look different, but our assessment is that a credible UK roadmap will need to include the following core pillars:
Elevating a clear pathway for falling fossil fuel demand from existing policies and plans
Elevating explicit messaging from CB7 and key sectoral policies and financing plans into a TAFF roadmap, to clarify how fossil fuel demand is expected to fall across power, transport, buildings and industry over time, would create a transparent political signal of future demand and help policymakers, industry and investors assess implications for fossil fuel production. This modelling exists, but must be actively reframed around fossil fuel demand as a principle element of economic planning.
Explicitly connecting fossil fuel demand reduction with national transition planning and the managed decline of oil and gas production
Climate action is often pitted against domestic fossil fuel production, but the more important question is how already declining oil and gas demand affects future production needs. On this basis, a UK TAFF roadmap should set out:
- Expected fossil fuel demand reductions;
- Projected North Sea production pathways;
- Existing oil and gas assets’ future role; and
- Plans for workers, communities and supply chains.
This would anchor individual project decisions in a national transition strategy, but it would also clarify the long-term public costs and liabilities associated with fossil fuel production. As production declines, decommissioning, clean-up responsibilities and taxpayer exposure become increasingly important – if any of the North Sea oil and gas companies goes bust, it will be the UK taxpayer that picks up a decommissioning tab which could run into the billions. A strategic TAFF framework would support early planning rather than reactive management.
Putting energy security at the centre of the national transition away from fossil fuels, and vice versa
The energy crisis exposed the risks of dependence on volatile international fossil fuel markets, and it’s now impossible to ignore the fact that both climate security and energy security are national security issues, as UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said in a recent speech in New York.
E3G-commissioned research has shown that the Russian invasion of Ukraine cost the UK economy £183 billion – triple the UK’s annual defence budget. Energy bills are surging again following the war in Iran. Long-term energy security requires clean power, electrification and energy efficiency to reduce that exposure.
A TAFF roadmap should show how reducing fossil fuel demand and managing the decline of domestic production during the transition can strengthen security, aligning with the government’s aim to reduce reliance on foreign fossil fuels and support economic resilience.
Energy security is not delivered through new fossil fuel supply. Debates over fields such as Rosebank show that new production is unlikely to lower bills or even substantially reduce import dependence. Reducing demand through clean technologies remains the most durable long-term route to greater security.
Planning for infrastructure transformation, including decommissioning of fossil fuel infrastructure
Transition planning is not just about building new infrastructure. It is also about managing the retirement or repurposing of existing systems.
A TAFF roadmap should therefore address both:
- Supply-side infrastructure, such as offshore platforms, pipelines and processing facilities; and
- Demand-side infrastructure, such as gas networks, household gas connections and fuel distribution systems.
The UK has world-leading expertise in decommissioning and is well placed to develop a practical approach to managing this change. Given the scale of North Sea infrastructure approaching the end of its productive life, planning for decommissioning is not simply an environmental requirement; it is becoming a major economic and fiscal priority and opportunity. Effective management can reduce risks to taxpayers while supporting the growth of a globally competitive decommissioning industry.
Putting workers, industrial opportunity, and equitable allocation of costs and benefits at the heart of the transition
As UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has emphasised, the transition will only succeed if it supports workers and communities and contributes to economic renewal.
A successful roadmap should therefore show how the transition can:
- Protect and create good jobs;
- Support oil and gas workers through change;
- Drive clean industrial growth;
- Strengthen UK supply chains; and
- Deliver regional economic development.
The transition should be seen not only as an environmental necessity, but as a major industrial opportunity. As activity in the North Sea evolves, workers and businesses possess valuable expertise that can be deployed across offshore wind, decommissioning, and other growth sectors. A TAFF roadmap can help provide the certainty needed to accelerate this shift and ensure communities benefit from emerging industries.
A COP31 opportunity for UK climate leadership
At COP31, the UK can send a clear and timely signal on how it will manage the transition by committing to develop a comprehensive, credible TAFF roadmap. Such a roadmap would demonstrate implementation-focused leadership – not new targets, but a demonstration of how to transition a whole economy away from fossil fuels while supporting workers, strengthening security and building long-term prosperity.
As countries turn climate commitments into economic strategies, the UK can show that transition planning need not mean choosing between climate action and economic growth, rather than a wealthy, diversified economy can responsibly manage fossil fuel decline, keep bills down, protect the public interest, give workers confidence and foster industries that drive future growth. It can take this message into its forthcoming G20 Presidency leadership too, showcasing its own plans for transition planning as a model for other major economies looking to manage their exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets and macroeconomic risks.
Finally, the UK should champion TAFF roadmaps as practical tools for cross-government planning, working to support countries from around the world, and work with vulnerable and new fossil fuel producing countries to support and facilitate their transitions.
