A year ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament that Europe was in a fight for its future, framing it as its “independence moment.” Since then, Europe has been confronted with its vulnerabilities: from trade, technology and security to energy and risks from extreme weather. Recent events have underscored the need for a more resilient European economy and stronger strategic autonomy.
Europe has been trying to rise to the challenge – but progress is slow. Industrial policy is firmly back on the agenda. Electrification is increasingly seen as an answer to competitiveness and energy security, as well as climate change. Europe is looking to deepen partnerships beyond its traditional relationships with the US and China to shore up economic security.
But with major elections approaching across Europe in 2027, the window for decisive action is narrowing. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Europe can turn ambition into lasting resilience.
Here’s where things stand on the four undertakings that will shape Europe’s independence bid, and the milestones to watch this autumn.
State of play: The policy direction is increasingly pointing towards an economy less exposed to imported fossil fuels and more capable of building competitive European clean industries. The energy crisis has added urgency: getting off fossil fuels is increasingly understood as an energy-security imperative, not just a climate one.
What’s next: A wave of proposals and decisions — across instruments (the Emissions Trading System), industrial policy (including the Industrial Accelerator Act, Public Procurement Act and Circular Economy Act) and energy (including the Grids Package, Energy Security Framework and post-2030 climate and energy framework) — will set the pace, coherence, and credibility of Europe’s move towards a more resilient energy system and industrial base. Implementation will be the real test.
State of play: Europe has recognised that strategic autonomy requires more investment, but has struggled to mobilise it at scale. The extension of the Stability and Growth Pact’s deficit escape clause created some room for investment in the transition away from fossil fuels. The E6 — France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland and the Netherlands — have pushed for deeper integration of European capital markets, but progress on the Savings and Investments Union has not kept pace with what is needed to achieve such integration.
Meanwhile, the Emissions Trading System (ETS) is under political pressure and the revenues it brings are increasingly contested, and negotiations on the MFF – the EU’s multi-year budget – face a familiar impasse on a tight timeline.
What’s next: The MFF – the EU’s multi-year budget – in particular its size and financing, will dominate the autumn, with two critical European Councils ahead. Alongside it, the Savings and Investments Union agenda will keep looking for ways to drive more capital into Europe and channel it towards strategic priorities. How much direct supervision moves from capitals to the EU, how much capital gets unlocked, and whether it actually turns into productive investment in Europe’s transition, are the three things to watch.
State of play: Europe has started to diversify. New trade instruments, initiatives and trade agreements with India, Australia and Mercosur all matter. But Europe has struggled to respond collectively to US pressure and political interference, failed to develop a sufficiently coherent China strategy, and has yet to make its strategic partnerships truly tangible.
What’s next: The international calendar offers a series of opportunities: the UN General Assembly, the appointment of a new UN Secretary-General, COP31, and strategic bilateral moments. Decisions on “Made in EU” criteria and supply chain resilience instruments will also shape the tone and focus of these engagements.
State of play: Europe has talked considerably about security, resilience and competitiveness, but tangible socioeconomic benefits have been slower to materialise. Europe is facing another energy shock against the backdrop of a housing crisis and persistent cost-of-living pressures, and climate impacts are hitting Europeans hard. On a more positive note, the countries that have reduced exposure to imported fossil fuels have been able to spare their citizens from the comparatively higher price hikes seen elsewhere, offering a glimpse into what the transition can do for energy security and the cost of living.
What’s next: The emerging EU climate resilience framework is one to watch — will this cornerstone policy effectively mainstream resilience and adaptation across levels of government, and establish a shared understanding of the risks ahead? Alongside it, the housing agenda and measures to protect consumers from future energy shocks will be crucial.
Much of what’s landing on European desks this autumn will look familiar — these are debates and files that were already in motion before the summer. But the context has changed, and the clock is ticking. Here’s the timeline to get you back up to speed.
