Collective action is bending the emissions curve downwards, but not nearly fast enough. As countries gather for COP30 in Belém, leaders must build on their recent statement to strengthen political confidence in the inevitability of the shift to clean energy, demonstrating real-world progress that goes beyond their NDCs and showing genuine commitment to accelerate the transitions to clean energy globally.
Global emissions are projected to fall 19 – 24% below 2019 levels by 2035 if all commitments in countries’ climate plans (NDCs) so far are fulfilled, including those conditional on finance and international support. This is insufficient for a global pathway to limit warming to 1.5 °C. NDCs must be the floor, not the ceiling, of ambition.
Energy accounts for more than three-quarters of total global emissions, making decarbonising the energy sector a critical part of the mitigation challenge. While year-on-year record-breaking renewables deployment is mirrored in countries’ climate plans, more is needed to triple renewable capacity, and a major step up is required to deliver on the full energy package agreed at COP28, including the Global Stocktake (GST) commitments to double energy efficiency and to transition away from fossil fuels.
Renewables deployment accelerates as countries see the opportunities…
The benefits of clean energy deployment are increasingly reflected in countries’ climate plans. Approximately 90% of newly submitted NDCs mention plans to increase renewable energy capacity, and three-quarters reference an intent to increase the share of renewables in the power mix, displacing fossil fuels.
Despite this, many NDCs still fail to truly reflect both the momentous opportunities of clean energy and the real-world progress already made.
Renewable energy deployment figures were the highest on record in 2024 for the third consecutive year, and solar PV capacity additions are on track to reach, and even exceed, the required capacity by 2030 for a 1.5°C world.
Renewable energy costs continue to plummet. They are now comfortably cheaper than new fossil fuels in most markets, while the cost of battery storage has collapsed by nearly 90% since 2015, making dispatchable renewable power a reality.
The deployment of non-hydro renewable capacity has enhanced energy security in fossil fuel-importing countries. Renewables installed since 2010 saved an estimated US$1.3 trillion in cumulative global imports of coal and natural gas through 2023. Without additions, imports of coal and natural gas would have been 45% higher in 2023.
The challenge, however, is pace. The world is not moving at the speed required to meet the goal to triple renewables capacity by 2030, with global projections putting the world at 2.7x rather than 3x. Most of this deployment is concentrated in advanced economies and China, with clean energy investments going to EMDEs a mere 15% of the global total. On energy efficiency, the latest data shows we are a long way off from the goal – improvement in energy intensity is currently around 1% per year, when 4% in needed.
…But the transition away from fossil fuels requires urgent attention
The shift away from the dirtiest fossil fuel continued this year as global power generation from renewables outstripped coal for the first time. Latin America and the Caribbean are now free of actively planned coal-fired power plants and No New Coal is a norm in 164 countries. In 2025, stalled and cancelled coal proposals led to a record low in the number of countries proposing or building new coal plants.
Three-quarters of countries that have submitted new NDCs plan to displace fossil fuels in their electricity system with clean energy, showing clear movement on the transition. However, very few have explicitly set out plans for transitioning away from fossil fuels beyond the power sector, in the whole energy system and economy.
A few first movers – Barbados, Chile, Colombia, Iceland and Vanuatu – have strong plans and state intentions to be fossil fuel free.
No country has provided a timeline for reducing oil and gas production, though Canada, Colombia and the UK have referenced plans to start winding down. Eight countries have used their climate plans to commit to boosting gas production.
These plans are all in stark contrast to the global agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, and to the clear economic benefits of the transition. A poll among business executives in 15 major economies, including the US, found that 97% support the switch.
COP30 must bring urgency and acceleration to the global energy transition
At COP30, leaders must deliver a credible, coherent response to the emissions gap, linking immediate action with long-term direction. Leaders must place the economic opportunity of the clean energy transition at the heart of that response, turning real-world momentum into lasting global prosperity and security.
At UNGA this year, Brazilian President Lula, the European Commission and 16 other leaders from across the world – including Bangladesh, Kenya, and South Africa – signed a joint letter which recognised that clean energy deployment will deliver energy security and economic growth. At COP30, more leaders must echo this call to send a collective signal of global consensus on accelerating the shift to clean power.
This must include strong support for electrifying economies worldwide with clean power to drive energy security, growth, prosperity and jobs.
Crucially, it will be important to elevate the message that the greatest mitigation potential comes from renewable energy and energy efficiency gains, to balance a push on sustainable fuels. The Brazilian COP Presidency is championing the role of biofuels in displacing fossil fuels, launching a pledge at pre-COP to quadruple sustainable fuel production by 2035. However, the role of biofuels in global decarbonisation is small compared to that of renewables, with solar and wind contributing at least 80% of capacity additions between now and 2030 in all IEA forecasts.
Many countries increasingly recognise that fossil fuel reliance brings volatility, exposure to market shocks, and energy security risks. However, two years after the COP28 agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, there has been little progress on collective implementation. To ensure a transition that is orderly and equitable – rather than chaotic and inequitable – countries will need to coordinate their actions across supply and demand, ensuring everyone can benefit from the economic opportunities of the transition.
To maintain momentum and provide a visible signal of progress, COP30 can launch an inclusive process or dialogue to advance the implementation of the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. Establishing a concrete space for driving collective action would enhance cooperation to generate practical pathways that address economic and energy transition challenges for both fossil fuel producers and consumers. It would also help identify the enabling conditions and international support needed for implementation and economic diversification amongst the most vulnerable producers.
Relatedly, a strong outcome for the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) should include an actionable mechanism that provides targeted support for just clean energy transitions.
Driving delivery in the COP30 Action Agenda is key to demonstrate how countries are going further and faster than their NDCs, evidencing real-world action to bolster support for negotiated outcomes on addressing the emissions gap.
Countries can showcase coalitions and solutions that advance current commitments, including progress on grids and storage beyond the COP29 Grids and Storage Pledge, making commitments to No New Coal and accelerating the phase-down of unabated coal under frameworks like the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) coal action plan.
Signals on finance mobilisation for energy transitions must be front and centre at COP30 to unlock greater action and build confidence and trust among developing nations that enhanced mitigation action is possible.
With almost 90% of recent NDCs from EMDEs at least partly dependent on international support, advanced economies must step up – providing accessible public finance and creating the conditions for private investment to scale.
Leaders must endorse an effective Baku to Bélem roadmap, detailing how finance will be mobilised for climate action, including for the clean energy transition, and how this roadmap will be operationalised.
International partnerships will also help give developing countries confidence that support will be made available for delivery. Tangible outcomes from the Energy Transition Council (ETC), the Global Clean Power Alliance (GCPA) and the Global Energy Transition Forum (GETF), for example, will be key.
The next generation of country platforms have also been touted as country-led mechanisms for addressing coordination and finance mobilisation challenges. To deliver on their potential to help scale country ambitions, stakeholders must build on the experience of the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) to support implementation of truly country-owned strategies.
