It’s day 2 of the G20 Summit. All eyes have turned to Rio for positive signals to bolster momentum in Baku. Yesterday’s Leaders’ statement offers some hope, reaffirming leaders’ commitment to multilateralism and voicing support for securing a meaningful deal on the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) for climate finance – the big item on the COP29 agenda.
However, in some areas, such as explicit commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, language is lacking. It is now more critical than ever that further support is given to negotiators to move towards ambitious outcomes at COP29 and cement the imperative of global cooperation on climate.
The G20 Summit is taking place amid global uncertainty and turbulence, including conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Sahel. In parallel, Trump’s re-election has cast a shadow over multilateral efforts and the concurrent COP29 negotiations, which are supposed to agree on a new climate finance goal for developing countries and boost momentum on climate cooperation and delivery.
Despite this tumultuous context, Brazil’s skillful diplomatic efforts throughout the year still yielded consensus on many issues at the ministerial level of the G20.
It is now time for G20 leaders to deliver at scale. President Lula can reinforce Brazil’s bridge-builder role by fostering the conditions for the group to support a multi-year, finance-driven pathway that’s both ambitious and actionable.
Political leadership is now crucial to pave the way forward at COP29, as technical negotiations are bumping up against challenges related to agreements needed on finance, adaptation, and mitigation.
With G20 countries accounting for 77% of global emissions and 85% of the global economy, they play a decisive role in the world’s ability to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5oC target and mobilise climate finance. The Rio Summit therefore provides a timely opportunity for the G20 to assume collective responsibility and advance ambitions in finance, mitigation, and adaptation efforts at COP29.
Driving Ambition on Finance
In Baku, the NCQG negotiations on climate finance for developing countries are lagging for a variety of reasons, with countries stuck in entrenched positions and arguments over quantum, contributor base and eligibility impacting negotiations.
G20 countries – representing both major donors and emerging markets – span different perspectives and wield significant influence. Developed nations should collectively commit to boost public and concessional support for climate-vulnerable countries, especially on adaptation. The G20 also offers an opportunity to resolve tensions over who pays for what, with China’s role being particularly pivotal in helping unlock further finance.
Beyond COP, the G20 shapes the broader financial landscape that determines the level of support and momentum towards climate action and financing. This year’s Task Force for the Global Mobilization against Climate Change linked finance and sherpa tracks for the first time in the history of the G20 to bolster financial flows towards the climate agenda. In addition, the outcomes of the G20 Finance Ministerial offered substantial progress on financial system reform at large.
That said, the outcome in Baku will hinge on measures yet to be implemented at leaders’ level, such as multilateral development bank reforms – expected to provide $120bn to developing countries by 2030 – and innovative finance like global solidarity levies. Macro-economic and debt reforms are also key to reinforcing international confidence and fostering successful COP outcomes.
A fraction of these G20 measures could yield a major step forward in climate financing and help secure a credible new finance goal. Brazil’s Mission 1.5°C framework, designed to exponentially scale up finance from COP28 to COP30, presents a viable, finance-led pathway to support ambition across mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage, that should be taken forward by the G20.
Driving Ambition on the Energy Transition
The G20 Energy Transitions Ministerial underscored the need to scale investments globally and reached a consensus for the first time since 2021 on principles for a just, inclusive energy transition – emphasising energy planning, workforce development and ending energy poverty.
However, in the Leaders’ statement, a crucial omission remained: accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels. It is critical that Brazil as the host of the COP30 Presidency and South Africa, as G20 Presidency host in 2025 prioritise further urgent work on decarbonisation pathways that will foster global confidence in a long-term fossil fuel phase-out in accordance with the outcome of the first global stocktake.
This will be of particular importance as countries prepare to submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by February 2025. Following the lead of Brazilian, Emirati and British announcements, remaining G20 members must ensure their submissions are 1.5°C aligned. Given the scale of their emissions, these NDCs will define the success or failure of the climate regime. Including language on the group’s commitment to deliver high-ambition NDCs in the final communiqué would be pivotal in boosting international coordination on this agenda and further foster successful outcomes at COP29.
Now is the time for G20 leaders to rise above differences, make bold commitments, and pave the way for a just and transformative global response to the climate crisis.
