At the end of the first week of COP29, discussions on furthering energy transition goals and delivering the COP28 energy package in negotiations could do with a boost. While there are positive signals, these are largely outside the formal negotiations, and many gaps remain.
The global energy transition requires urgent action with clear policies, targets, and a massive scale up of annual investment – to around $4.8tn/year by 2030, reaching $5.3tn/year by 2035 globally. Within this, Emerging and Developing Economies (EMDEs), excluding China, will need $1.6tn by 2030 and $2.1tn by 2035. Failure to deliver on this will increase the risk of missing our clean energy targets.
Urgency to deliver on the energy transition at COP seems missing
Several leaders’ speeches echoed support for clean energy transitions, but few provided specifics on phasing out fossil fuels. Slovakia was one of the few countries to reemphasise their commitment to no new coal, showing that smaller nations can lead by example.
The UK, alongside its welcome commitment to increase its NDC ambition to 81%, also referred to being the first G7 nation to end its dependence on coal power and that it had stopped new oil and gas licencing. Others, like South Korea, made promises to prepare Paris-aligned NDCs in a timely manner, but these words must be backed by concrete measures.
While two of the Troika, UAE and Brazil, have submitted their NDCs, neither are 1.5°C-aligned. They also do not present a pathway to reduce their oil and gas production – critical as both countries have expansion plans. Interestingly, Brazil’s NDC includes a suggestion to develop an international framework on a fossil fuel phase down timeline, which is one to watch during their Presidency next year.
Signals of real-world progress
Several announcements and partnerships this week nonetheless signalled progress on energy. In a boost to global efforts to phase out coal power, Uganda and Standard Chartered joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance. 180 countries and business have now joined the PPCA, committing to stop developing new unabated coal power plants and phase out existing ones in line with 1.5°C.
Furthermore, the ADB’s Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM) programme announced progress with its pilot project in Kazakhstan on early coal retirement. However, more work is needed as Kazakhstan still has a new coal pipeline of 5GW and has not committed to no new coal.
This week also saw a landmark new report, the Coal Transition Commission (CTC) lay out the opportunities, challenges and potential policy solutions to accelerate the coal-to-clean transition, with steps for governments, international organisations, standard setters, and financial institutions to create an enabling policy environment, scale up finance, and build a pipeline of projects.
The Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) launched its Clean Energy Action Plan this week. Over the last few years, CETP signatories have successfully cut their international public finance for fossil fuels by up to two-thirds (US$15 billion/year). While the scale of redirection to clean energy investments has been limited, at COP29 they committed to provide targeted and accessible international public support for clean energy.
To accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, the European Commission and the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) announced a partnership and plan to strengthen producer-consumer collaboration. Apart from the US$20 million BOGA fund, there are no dedicated funds for oil and gas phase out.
The Energy Transition Council (ETC), Breakthrough Agenda, and IRENA also partnered on a high-powered dialogue that explored avenues to scale investments to meet power sector transition needs.
The COP29 Presidency marked energy day with the launch of three energy pledges:
- Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge, which targets a sixfold increase in global energy storage to 1500GW and a significant grid expansion by 2030 – critical for tripling renewables and decarbonising the power sector.
- Green Energy Zones and Corridors Pledge, which is a welcome attempt at establishing regional and international cooperation on renewable energy deployment and regional power transition infrastructure, but any attempts to use this pledge to expand gas infrastructure need to be curbed.
- Hydrogen Declaration, which aims to catalyse a global clean hydrogen market. Decarbonizing production of hydrogen is important, but the focus needs to be on green hydrogen, which for cost reduction is dependent on the renewable tripling target. While Green H2 is important for industrial decarbonisation, it is not a silver bullet, and should not delay action on fossil fuels.
Of course, effective implementation of pledges will hinge on credible national policies to increase investments and expand national clean energy transitions, and strong multilateral alliances to deliver necessary support to developing countries. This can help move towards more globally equitable clean energy growth and give confidence in meeting COP28’s energy package.
Looking ahead to week two of COP
The start of Week 2 at COP29 will coincide with G20 Leaders’ summit in Brazil. The world needs the G20 to send strong, positive signals to inject new energy into the COP29 negotiations. The G20 provides an opportunity for climate-leading countries to showcase further progress against our energy transition goals.
Back at COP29, countries will need to find a way forward on the critical negotiations on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). COPs also need to uphold and build on the legacy of past decisions. The final NCQG text, and ideally a final cover text, should also maintain and preferably strengthen ambition on the full energy package agreed at COP28.
In Week 2, the pressure is on for leaders to deliver progress on finance and reemphasise their commitment to triple renewables, double energy efficiency, and transition away from fossil fuels.
