The clock is ticking for countries to submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Due February 2025, these NDCs must lay out countries’ national decarbonisation and resilience plans to 2035.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change clearly sets out what governments need to do to limit global warming and adapt to its impacts. Yet, targets outlined in countries’ current NDCs fall far short of what is needed to be aligned with the 1.5°C objective set by the Paris Agreement.
Feeling the heat
At just 1.2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, devastating climate-related extreme weather events are experienced at increased scale and speed worldwide. This year notably saw Brazil’s deadly flooding and fires, extreme heat in India, Spain’s unprecedented flash floods last week, ongoing floods in Senegal and Niger, and worsening sea-level rise in the Pacific Islands.
The latest UNEP Emissions Gap report finds the continuation of current policies will lead to a temperature rise of up to 3.1°C. Meeting existing commitments for 2030 would still mean a +2.6-2.8°C temperature rise. As countries prepare to submit their new NDCs extending out to 2035, it will be crucial that they also ramp up their 2030 targets.
Bold action to sharply reduce emissions must be taken immediately if we are to fend off even more catastrophic climate impacts beyond the limits of adaptation.
Why NDCs matter
NDCs can provide the clarity and certainty needed for decarbonisation pathways to attract capital at scale and accelerate the pace of change. By putting forward a comprehensive strategy to reduce emissions across all sectors – based on principles of justice and equity – countries can lay the foundations for investment opportunities in their transition towards a clean economy and resilient society.
To reduce emissions at scale, robust NDCs must be economy and society-wide and set ambitious integrated development plans. NDCs should be backed by credible government policies to ensure timely and effective implementation.
NDCs should incorporate clear adaptation objectives to build resilience against increasingly dangerous climate impacts. They must also reflect COP28’s outcomes of the First Global Stocktake (GST) and UAE Consensus – which included ramping up renewables’ capacity and energy efficiency, but also transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Expected signals for NDC ambition at COP29
COP29 is a key moment to unlock further climate finance on the road to 2035. Negotiations of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) will send important signals on the support available for EMDEs. A strong NCQG will be crucial to encourage developing countries to make strong and ambitious NDC submissions.
Just before COP29, the UAE was the first to submit its updated ‘NDC 3.0’. Together with Azerbaijan and Brazil, the ‘Troika’ of COP Presidencies launched the ‘Roadmap to Mission 1.5°C,’ aimed at following through on GST and NCQG outcomes and driving climate ambition by COP30.
Yet the Troika’s own ambition remains debatable. Recent analysis shows these three countries plan to increase oil and gas production by 32% by 2025. However, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the Troika Mission 1.5°C initiative remains commendable. The Troika now needs to double down on building a strong coalition for closing the NDC ambition gap in the critical weeks ahead.
Besides the Troika, the UK’s NDC announcement is expected at COP29, following the recommendation of an 81% emission cut by 2035. A strong statement of UK international climate leadership would set a benchmark for others to follow, giving a boost to the process.
Political mobilisation needs to increase at diplomatic levels as well. Canada’s G7, South Africa’s G20, and Brazil’s BRICS and COP30 presidencies in 2025 will have a key role to play in building collective ambition. Canada will need to confront its role as a major fossil fuel producer. G20 action is decisive as the group represents 77% of global emissions. South Africa can build on Brazil’s G20 efforts. Brazil will have to use its COP30 and BRICS presidencies to position upcoming NDCs as the floor, not the ceiling, for keeping 1.5°C in reach.
Amidst new geopolitical uncertainty from US election results, clear signals of commitment, ambition, and collective resolve from major emitters at COP29- such as China, the EU, India, Indonesia, and Japan – are urgently needed.
E3G will be closely monitoring NDC announcements made at COP29 and their implications towards 2025 climate ambition.
