- The UK, the UAE and Brazil have now submitted their respective NDC targets to 2035, kickstarting the new ambition cycle of the Paris Agreement.
- Although, the UK’s 81% emissions reduction target sets the bar high for accelerating decarbonisation at scale in the next decade, the UAE and Brazil’s submissions fail to address fossil fuel phase-out, despite commitments made at COP28 last year. With Azerbaijan still due to submit theirs, it stands as the only COP Troika member yet to follow through on this submission round.
- The Troika will need to walk the talk on its commitment to building a strong coalition for real NDC ambition and making swift progress to close the ambition gap. Signals from other key emitters and climate influencers, including the EU and China will be key to move NDC ambition forward and foster fast and fair decarbonisation globally.
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As countries have gathered in Baku for COP29, first movers have started publishing their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035. Due by February 2025, these NDCs must lay out their national decarbonisation and resilience plans to 2035.
The UK came through earlier this week with an ambitious commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 81% by 2035, based on 1990 levels. Aligned with the UK’s Climate Change Committee recommendations, this ambitious target reinforces the UK’s promise to lead on climate action. It also aims to be the first developed country with a fully decarbonised power system by 2030. While the government pledged to release a fully detailed NDC by February 2025, this announcement reasserts the UK’s position as a global climate leader, setting a powerful example for G7 and G20 nations to follow.
Additionally, two members of the “Troika” of COP Presidencies—the UAE and Brazil— launched their respective NDCs. Although their early submissions are welcome, the content of both NDCs fails to address the critical issue fossil fuel phase-out, despite the outcomes of last year Global Stocktake and the agreement to ramp up energy decarbonisation in the UAE Consensus. As former and upcoming COP President respectively, the UAE and Brazil will need to address this gap in their NDC to boost other developing countries to submit high-ambition NDCs.
The missing piece of the Troika’s leadership remains the Azeri NDC submission. It is still yet to come, despite an original commitment for the three countries to submit before COP29 and then expectations for it at the Opening Ceremony upon missing the first mark. Following the President of Azerbaijan’s declaration that natural resources and oil are a “gift from the gods” at the COP Opening Ceremony, expectations the Azeri NDC will address fossil fuel phase out remain low.
Yet the UN Secretary General was unequivocal in his address to the COP29 assembly on Tuesday: unless emissions drop, and finance increases, countries will face far more devastating impacts than the already catastrophic climate disasters that have occurred globally this year alone. Antonio Guterres called on all countries to submit 1.5°C aligned NDCs to 2035 in accordance with the UAE Consensus and the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) – highlighting G20 countries must lead the way.
As countries finalise their own NDCs, it will be crucial that they send early, positive signals through their respective ambitions. Many are waiting to see what the next move from major emitters and key economies will be, including that of the EU, China, Japan, Canada, India and Indonesia. Despite calls to double down on multilateralism being echoed by multiple leaders during COP’s high-level segment, the shadow of Trump’s re-election looms large. Signals on climate are still expected from Biden at next week’s G20 Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro. In parallel, the outcome of the NCQG negotiations in Baku will be key to determine the level of ambition developing and vulnerable countries will be able to vouch for.
E3G is closely monitoring the developments on the ground in Baku and will keep providing analysis as the next two weeks unfold.
Quotes
Nick Mabey, Co-Founder and Co-CEO at E3G said:
“The UK is stepping up as a climate frontrunner at a time when such leadership is critically needed, by committing to this new target and to supporting other countries via the NDC Partnership. We hope to see detailed implementation plans—ideally with sectoral commitments and a supporting investment roadmap- to lend credibility to its submission. The target, reinforced by a robust legal framework with independent oversight reporting to Parliament, exemplifies how countries can advance ambitious transitions with clear plans and strong domestic governance. Other nations should follow suit with high-ambition targets similarly underpinned by clear sectoral plans and strong domestic governance as they submit their own targets.“
Gustavo Pinheiro, Senior Associate at E3G said:
“President Lula’s efforts to elevate the agenda on multilateral stages like the G20 are commendable, but the target in the new NDC falls short of aligning with the pathway indicated at the GST to limit global warming within 1.5C. With Brazil on track to become the world’s fourth-largest oil producer by decade’s end and the indication of using ITMOs to achieve the higher ambition level of the present target range, the pathway to true alignment with 1.5°C is not yet clear despite the Brazilian Presidency of COP30 being marked by the Mission 1.5 motto.”
Steffen Menzel, Programme Lead on Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics at E3G said:
“The UAE and Brazil made good on their promises as first-movers to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, but clearly failed to deliver on mitigation ambition. Given the renewed global scrutiny of climate action, this limited ambition is particularly disappointing from the COP Troika, especially given their commitment to lead on the ‘Roadmap to Mission 1.5’. Continued fossil fuel expansion starkly contrasts with a ‘1.5-aligned’ pathway. The absence of any signal from Azerbaijan to submit their NDC is equally concerning. For their own economic, security, and environmental interests, countries must prioritize renewables over oil and gas. The Troika must fulfill its promise to foster a true coalition for climate ambition, making tangible strides to close the ambition gap in the critical weeks ahead.”
Ignacio Arroniz Velasco, Senior Policy Advisor in Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics at E3G said:
“It is disappointing to hear that the EU is set to miss the UN’s critical deadline for submitting its next climate targets by February. The EU must move urgently to at least file its targets without delay and with maximum ambition. This means adopting the EU Commission’s proposal of 90% emissions cut by 2040 and urgently putting forward an ambitious 2035 target that frontloads reductions as much as possible to maximise economic and environmental impact.
With the re-election of Donald Trump as upcoming US president, the stakes are high: it is time for the EU to demonstrate its true commitment to global climate ambition not just in words, but in action, and fill in the vacuum of international climate leadership. The EU must therefore lead on providing technical and financial support for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs), ensuring they have the means to confidently implement their own climate plans and pledges to 2035.”
Anna Peran, Researcher in Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics at E3G said:
“As echoed by many leaders during COP29’s high-level segment, climate change is not a future reality anymore: countries, developed and developing alike, are already suffering its worsening impacts. Now is the time to come together and deliver climate action across the board. The IPCC clearly sets out what governments need to do to limit global warming and adapt to its impacts. Yet, targets outlined in countries’ current NDCs fall far short of being 1.5°C aligned. This new round of NDCs to 2035 needs to deliver ambitious decarbonisation at scale – starting with G20 countries.”
Available for comment
Gustavo Pinheiro (EN, PT), Senior Associate on Brazil
gustavo.pinheiro@e3g.org
Steffen Menzel (EN, DE), Programme Lead, Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics
m: +49 151 51201182 steffen.menzel@e3g.org
Anna Peran (EN, FR), Researcher, NDC Diplomacy
m: +33770302240 anna.peran@e3g.org
Notes to Editors
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