Pre-COP, which took place in Brasilia last month, was an opportunity for Parties to identify common ground, surface tensions, test positions, and build a collective vision for a potential COP30 outcomes package (E3G proposes what such a package could look like in this Briefing). Pre-COP made some strides: it provided updates on the Action Agenda and the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, as well as constructive breakout sessions on three of the priority negotiation issues. And yet the Brazilian Presidency didn’t provide clarity on their vision for the ultimate package, or how it will secure agreement on a robust response plan to the shortfall in collective ambition that we see in the current round of Nationally Determined Contribution submissions. Furthermore, there is a concern that traditional positions and group dynamics are concentrating, rather than loosening.
The following impressions will be important as signals heading into Belém.
Key Takeaways from PreCOP
Responding to the Ambition Gap
There was broad consensus in Brasilia on the need to raise ambition across all elements of the Paris Agreement, but how COP30 will deliver this is not yet clear. At the heart of this, it will be crucial that the Global Stocktake (GST) process is seen as an effective engine for political accountability and corrective action.
Agreeing the overall strategy will require political leadership and coordination by the Brazilian COP30 Presidency at ministerial and leader levels. At the Pre-COP sessions, these discussions made limited headway. Countries remained divided over what these follow-up “dialogues” should focus on and how formal their outcomes should be. In particular, the Like-Minded Developing Countries and the Arab Group continued to strongly oppose proposals for ministerial roundtables or formal decisions linked to the dialogues.
The NDC Synthesis Report, released on 28 October, only underscored the collective ambition shortfall, making it even more critical for the COP30 Presidency to demand decisive political acceleration from all Parties. On October 28, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) submitted a request for a COP30 agenda item on “Responding to the NDC Synthesis Report and Addressing the 1.5°C Ambition and Implementation Gap.” While consultations are continuing on this and other proposals for new agenda items, securing a credible response plan must be one of the main objectives of the COP30 Presidency, and it is the responsibility of Leaders to make a robust call for this at the World Leaders Summit.
Addressing Adaptation
The political focus on adaptation is higher than ever, having been explicitly framed as a credibility test for multilateralism and front and centre at Pre-COP, including the Climate and Development Ministerial and key Global Goal on Adaptation breakout sessions, Adaptation sessions were among the most charged, and the most productive, of the Pre-COP, with the focus on defining what success would look like at Belém. The signals from Brasilia were clear that commitments to mitigation are fragile without equal commitment to protecting the people and communities already facing climate impacts.
PreCOP brought the core of a COP package on adaptation into greater focus. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) indicators was a key focus, with consensus, albeit fragile, that securing agreement on the GGA indicators early in into COP30 would be a helpful signal to create the necessary political momentum for stronger outcomes elsewhere across the COP30 package.
There was also broad agreement that there must be a shift from promises to clear, credible signals that the finance will be scaled up and will flow to where it is most needed is the political bar for Belém. This was highlighted in particular at the Climate and Development Ministerial, with three key asks around simplifying access, promoting programmatic approaches and scaling finance, especially for LDCs and SIDS. Several delegations tied adaptation explicitly to the Baku–Belém finance process, urging that resilience investment be made visible in that roadmap. We hope to see donor countries coming forward with clear support for adaptation including in the form of commitments to ensuring finance will flow towards the most vulnerable.
Success will hinge on countries and institutions grasping the opportunity to translate ambition into action, underscoring the vital link between climate adaptation and economic stability and security.
Making finance credible
Update on the The Baku-to-Belém Roadmap (B2BR) were mostly procedural, yet politically charged. Developing countries had already expressed skepticism that the Roadmap would deliver since the disappointing NCQG outcome in Baku and donor silence on post-2025 finance commitments. The Brazilian and Azeri presidencies stressed that the roadmap does not replace the NCQG process, but rather sits alongside it, meant to identify concrete actions and to show how the $1.3 trillion target can be met in practice. A key political challenge that emerged at PreCOP for Belém is getting Parties to agree on the necessary governance and accountability principles. Developing countries were clear that the B2BR must lead to mandated structural changes that accelerates scale and predictability of financial flows. To be credible, it must incorporate specific, measurable financial tools that de-risk investment and increase access to capital.
The B2BR reception, together with the TFFF launch are Brazil’s response to bridge the finance gap. Inaugurating a new generation of innovative climate finance instruments. Strong signals from donor countries on public and private mobilisation, as well as on finance system and MDB reform will be needed to ensure there is the credibility and faith that the Roadmap will deliver.
Just Transition and trade
Pre-COP saw progress on the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) in identifying areas of convergence and clarifying issues that require more work at the political level, such as how to strengthen the architecture for its implementation. However, reaching agreement at COP30 on institutional arrangements for the Work Programme remains challenging. Trade and unilateral measures continued to be front and centre in the discussions; the Brazilian proposal for an Integrated Forum on Trade and Climate has thus far not appreciably reduced tensions around this issue.
All eyes on Belém
Diplomatically, the Pre-COP in Brasília underscored both the fragility and the necessity of multilateral cooperation at this stage in the climate process. Discussions revealed a complex web of competing priorities, regional politics, and different perspectives that will be challenging to square. The creation of Brazil’s Leadership Circles added moral and institutional weight to the process, but also raised expectations for Brazil to steer these narratives into concrete outcomes. With geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and scepticism around finance commitments all still unresolved, the core diplomatic challenge coming out of Pre-COP will be how to mobilise the political will and strategic leadership to move beyond aspiration, bridge divides and provide the actionable, well-planned solutions required to make the global Mutirão Brazil has called for a reality to drive the next decade of climate action.
There was no formal discussion at the pre-COP on either the overall finance package or the response to the collective NDC ambition shortfall. PreCOP showed us that to land an outcomes package will require political symmetry between the response to the NDC deficit on the one hand, and the response to the finance deficit on the other. Given that the level of ambition on both fronts is nationally determined, concerns were expressed as to whether COP30 will send credible signals that either of these ambition gaps can be closed.
President Lula has framed COP30 as the “COP of truth”, with 170+ countries confirmed and 57 heads of state or government expected at the Leaders’ Summit, Belém is set to become well attended politically, while not at the same scale as Paris, Dubai or Glasgow. Trust remains brittle, between North and South, donors and recipients, and even within country coalitions. Brasília still holds a unique ability to turn divides into shared opportunities. The Pre-COP confirmed that Brazil’s diplomatic strength lies in convening, while COP30 will require not only mediation but real orchestration.
