How will EU Foreign Ministers respond to a changing global climate, energy and geopolitical landscape?
- At the Foreign Affairs Council on 21 April, EU Ministers are set to adopt Conclusions on energy and climate diplomacy, recognising the geopolitical value of climate and energy as strategic tools in EU foreign and security policy to strengthen security, strategic autonomy, competitiveness, and resilience.
- Ministers are expected to clearly endorse the energy transition as the route to energy security through a fast and decisive reduction of reliance and fossil fuels. This positions the clean transition long-term strategic asset not just in the EU but globally, and with a renewed urgency.
- In a volatile geopolitical environment, the EU’s influence has been perceived as strained. Climate and energy diplomacy and cooperation stand out as key levers to strengthen the link between climate resilience and security, signalling strategic assertiveness in global climate diplomacy and reinforcing the EU’s role as a reliable and predictable partner.
- With the European Commission’s AccelerateEU communication expected on 22 April and EU leaders meeting at an informal European Council on 23–24 April, these conclusions can help strengthen key arguments in the ongoing EU policy debate.
Story
Following a year of geopolitical turbulence and strained multilateralism, recent weeks showcased the EUs’ vulnerability arising from dependence on fossil fuels. The Foreign Affairs Council Conclusions on energy and climate diplomacy are expected to confirm the EU’s continued commitment to climate and energy transition as a cornerstone of foreign and security policy.
Diplomacy and external action to advance the global climate and energy transition, as well as resilience and security, are among the EU’s most effective strategic assets for safeguarding core domestic interests such as competitiveness, sovereignty, and security, including energy security and diversified value chains. By embedding climate, energy and resilience more effectively in its foreign and security policy, the EU can strengthen partnerships worldwide, enhance its geopolitical influence and geoeconomic resilience and reduce vulnerabilities such as dependence on fossil fuel imports.
Although COP30 achieved a hard-won consensus, insufficient progress on mitigation and a strained political environment ultimately resulted in widespread disappointment within the EU and its Member States. As a first collective statement of Member States following the conference, and coinciding with major diplomatic moment such as the Petersberg Climate Dialogue and the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, Conclusions have the potential, if done right, to set out the cornerstones of an assertive EU strategy in a moment where the global order is demanding greater leadership from the EU overall, and on the road to COP31, the next Global Stocktake in 2028, and the fourth round of NDCs in 2030.
What we expect to be the most significant:
- Will the Council follow Commission and EEAS in recognizing the unique geopolitical power that its energy and climate diplomacy equips it with? Last year, European Commission and European External Action Service recognized the geopolitical relevance of climate and energy instruments in the Global Climate and Energy Vision. The conclusions can follow suit and recognize the geopolitical value of Europe’s external action on climate, energy, and resilience as they continue to advance Europe’s strategic autonomy, advance the clean transition and strengthening global security and resilience while expanding its influence and agency on the global stage. We will also look out for an evolved articulation of security inclusive of clean energy security and climate security.
- Will the EU seize the moment of the current energy crisis to take a bold approach to energy diplomacy – one that helps the world escape the energy crisis inevitability brought by fossil fuels? Countries that have pursued more ambitious energy transition agendas in recent years are already reaping clear energy security benefits, even where security was not the original driver behind investments in renewables and energy efficiency. Yet some developed economies are providing short-term fixes that keep partner countries locked into fossil fuel volatility – for example Japan’s support package to neighbouring countries to ease oil price shocks. The EU is well-positioned to chart a different course by scaling up its support to partner countries’ energy transitions. Doing so would enable partners to boost local renewable energy generation, permanently reducing their exposure to fossil fuel chokepoint risk. We will be watching closely to see whether the EU frames support for partners as short-term crisis management, or as a long-term strategy to strengthen EU geopolitical influence while underpinning economic and social stability in its neighbourhood and beyond.
- Will the EU showcase its commitment as reliable and predictable partner that posits progress on global climate and energy transition as strategic assets and long-term strategic interest for itself and other countries? EU can reaffirm its reliability and predictability as a partner, offering partnership based on common interests and on an eye-to-eye level as well as predictable domestic policy frameworks through reaffirming existing commitments. In an increasingly fragmented geopolitical and economic landscape, diversifying strategic partnerships and deepening cooperation are essential for the EU to secure trusted partners globally. This can strengthen the competitiveness and geoeconomic resilience the EU’s industry and ensure access to emerging markets. Similarly, strengthening global resilience, including through adaptation efforts, is an investment in global security that also benefits the EU. In addition to its bilateral partnerships such as the Clean Trade and Investment Partnership with South Africa, the EU must also lean into plurilateral fora. This includes for example continued leaderships with the EU-led Global Energy Transitions Forum, stepping up closer cooperation with the Powering Past Coal Alliance, as well as advancing other coalitions of the willing where consensus is not possible. We will also look for approaches to strengthen improve the strategic alignment and coherence in the external action of the EU and its Member States.
- Will the EU make the case for strategically assertive approach for a durable and political resilient international climate regime, including towards COP31? The 17th Petersberg Climate Dialogue on 21-22 April, will take place in parallel to the FAC, and the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, on 24-29 April, will take place shortly after. The Conclusions can contribute to build political momentum and shared ambition on the road to COP31. We will watch if they elevate the focus on implementation, delivery, and partnerships alongside consensus-based negotiations. The EU can double down on its commitment to the Paris Agreement and to multilateralism support the evolution of the multilateral climate regime to ensure it is fit for implementation. Moreover, building from COP30, the EU will require a short- and a long-term vision to move beyond the tensions of the COP30 outcome and build a strategic pathway towards COP33 and the second Global Stocktake. This will also impact the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions in 2030 to help deliver a durable and politically resilient shift to close ambition and implementation gaps. It includes ensuring visible progress towards implement of the first Global Stocktake and other multilateral commitments, including the energy package, to boost confidence in the process. The EU will also need to recognize the importance of adaptation as bridge-builder towards partners, as especially vulnerable countries see the provision of adaptation and loss and damage as litmus test of whether the Paris Agreement is functioning as intended.
Quotes
Richard Smith, Senior Policy Advisor, Global Energy Transition, said:
“Growing frustration in Europe over its perceived powerlessness to influence the unfolding conflict in the Middle East – and the resulting energy shocks at home – does not tell the full story. The EU’s climate and energy diplomacy remains a unique strategic asset. On Tuesday, Foreign Ministers have an opportunity to use the current crisis to accelerate support for partner countries’ energy transitions, in a way that also helps European industry. Ministers should treat this not as crisis firefighting but as a long‑term strategic investment to help shift the global energy system off the fossil‑fuel crisis roller-coaster.”
Anton Jaekel, Policy Advisor, Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics, said:
“In the face of mounting geopolitical strain, EU Foreign Ministers can reaffirm climate and energy diplomacy as cornerstones of the EU’s foreign and security policy. They are among Europe’s most powerful assets to strengthen strategic autonomy, longterm security, and geopolitical influence, including by positioning the EU as a reliable and predictable global partner as others focus on great power rivalry. Making the international climate regime fit for purpose requires EU to combine a forward-leaning, multi-year strategic approach with a commitment to multilateralism and alliance building.”
Cosima Cassel, Programme Lead, Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics, said:
“Foreign Ministers are meeting at the same moment as the Petersberg Climate Dialogue takes place in Berlin, bringing together ministers to set direction and support alignment towards COP31. There are clear interconnections, as the conclusions will provide a basis for how the EU approaches international climate diplomacy for 2026 and beyond. Other countries, particularly from the Global South, will be watching closely for signs from Petersberg and EU Foreign Ministers that the EU has the political resolve to drive political momentum behind climate action in a manner fit for the new geopolitical era.”
Available for comment
Manon Dufour, Executive Director, E3G Brussels, (EN/FR), Manon.dufour@e3g.org
Richard Smith, Senior Policy Advisor, Global Energy Transition, (EN/FR), Richard.smith@e3g.org
Anton Jaekel, Policy Advisor, Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics, (EN/DE), Anton.jaekel@e3g.org
