2024 marked a decisive shift in Europe’s green transition. As the EU entered a new political cycle, the European Green Deal moved from high-level policymaking to tangible rollout in the real economy. Governments, businesses and people are making definite strides towards a cleaner future. However, to ensure a resilient transition, Europe needs better coordination, greater investment, stronger social foundations and more political stability.
In this report, we analyse the political realities of implementing the green transition in the EU in 2024. We examine key political trends, fractures and challenges that are shaping the transition on the ground, explore the most contentious debates of the year, and delve deeper into several real-world stories.
Five political lessons from analysing the EU’s climate transition in 2024
1. Europe’s climate transition is underway, proving both resilient and instrumental in the face of challenges
Governments and businesses are progressing on green transition goals. They had to navigate challenges such as heightened international competition, persistently high energy prices, political gains by far-right parties opposed to climate action, and mounting climate impacts. Yet, the climate transition proved both resilient to these issues and instrumental to addressing them. The remaining question is how fast and how fair the transition will be.
2. National approaches are often strategically risky and misaligned, emphasising the value of having EU goals and coordination
Europe’s transition is unfolding unevenly, with national governments often prioritising short-term interests over a coordinated EU approach – extending reliance on Russian fuels, pushing ahead with hydrogen mega-projects without a clear strategy, or doubling down on nuclear at the expense of renewables. Without strategic planning and EU coordination, decisions by governments and businesses risk creating new dependencies, driving up costs, and delaying key aspects of the transition – such as industrial electrification, gas phase-out, or greening finance.
3. Investments are a critical transition bottleneck and need upscaling along with stable policy frameworks
Key projects, from grid expansion to industrial decarbonisation, lag due to funding shortfalls. While private capital offers high returns in some cases, all estimates show it falls short of the investment boost the EU needs. Yet, public investment so far remains limited and fragmented. Policy uncertainty and regulatory shifts further impact investor confidence, risking slowing down progress.
4. People broadly endorse climate action, but support is fragile without adequate socio-economic backing
Opinion polls, consumer choices, and vibrant activism showed strong public support for climate action. However, it became clear that this endorsement could fade if transition policies, such as those to make homes greener, are perceived as unfair – especially during times of inflated cost of living. Without stronger and well-funded social protections, public discontent and political resistance threaten to stall progress.
5. Increasing polarisation erodes public trust in the transition, whereas involving diverse stakeholders fosters shared ownership of decisions
Far-right and incumbent interests continued to make use of societal tensions and pre-existing socio-economic issues to undermine the green transition and feed perceptions of failure and backlash. Growing polarisation made consensus-building increasingly hard and threatened to erode public trust. Experience showed that engaging diverse stakeholders – such as farmers and civil society – can strengthen shared ownership of decisions, smooth contentious reforms and, potentially, ensure policy stability.
Implications for governments, businesses and citizens
Governments across Europe are navigating similar barriers
Governments need to simultaneously respond to overlapping crises and on-the-ground realities, all while avoiding ineffective solutions, siloed approaches and policy instability. They can learn a lot from each other as they work to secure sufficient financing, shape a joint EU industrial strategy and maintain public buy-in.
Businesses must face the reality that decarbonisation is the backbone of the EU’s economic strategy
Collaboration with governments, transparency about their efforts and proactive community engagement can help businesses attract funding, build public trust and create stable conditions for long-term success. However, while those who are already adapting to a cleaner future are well positioned, their voices are needed in public debates so they are not overshadowed by incumbent interests.
Citizens put social concerns alongside climate action
Europeans want political leaders to tackle the cost-of-living crisis and security issues together with climate. They are more likely to support the transition when they feel included in decisions that impact their lives. Citizens need to make their voices heard, while being vigilant about disinformation and exploitation of socio-economic issues.
