“1.5C to stay alive is not a slogan, it’s a lifeline.” That was the Pacific Leaders’ message at the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), as a new United Nations Environment Programme report was published warning that 1.5C is now widely assessed as unavoidable under current policies. That warning carried through to UN General Assembly (UNGA), where Leaders and the UN Secretary-General linked fossil fuel dependence directly to “havoc”. From the PIF to UNGA, the diagnosis is converging, but momentum now needs to land.
The PreCOP, 5-8 October, is the final major diplomatic moment before COP31 and the test for Leaders is whether words from UNGA translate into real engagement. This means confronting difficult challenges: energy security, most acute in the very region hit hardest by climate impacts, the growing and worsening toll of El Nino, and the delivery of climate finance to the most vulnerable. The Pacific has named the stakes, and the PreCOP is where the rest of the world needs to show it’s listening.
PreCOP sits within a three-stage Pacific diplomatic sequence: Palau, current Chair of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), hosted the Pacific Islands Forum in early September alongside a climate-focussed “Leaders’ Ascent Dialogue”; Fiji will host the PreCOP 5-8 October, with Tuvalu hosting a Leaders Segment event, ahead of Tuvalu also hosting the Second Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels next year. The Pacific diplomatic sequence is particularly acute for global climate action as the Pacific is home to the world’s most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, despite contributing to less than 0.03% to the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions.
At the PreCOP, parties will be looking to the joint Australia and Türkiye COP31 Presidency to show deliberate and courageous leadership centred around keeping 1.5C within reach, climate finance, adaptation and resilience, and elevating Pacific voices and leadership.
Keeping 1.5C within reach
Political attention remains firmly fixed on the fallout from the Strait of Hormuz closure, sharpening the security case for reducing fossil fuel dependence and accelerating the shift to clean, resilient and electrified economies. That shift is now further complicated by AI and data centres, which demand additional renewable supply. Progress must be underpinned by new commitments to drive electrification delivery, to lower the costs of capital developing economies, boost investment in grids and storage infrastructure, to track global progress, and ensure just transition principles are embedded throughout the energy transition.
The Pacific has long demanded a transition away from fossil fuels and this has only been reinforced by mounting climate science. As they prepare to lead the PreCOP process, Australia and Türkiye now inherit a responsibility to carry the Pacific’s fight forward, not dilute it.
Climate Finance including Access
Climate finance remains the deepest fracture between Parties, underpinning a lack of progress in other areas. At PreCOP, Australia and Türkiye have an opportunity to connect the negotiations on finance with practical changes that make support faster, more affordable and more responsive to national priorities, especially for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), which can be taken forward to the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok.
Access is a priority topic for the Australian Presidency, and the PreCOP gives Australia a chance to build momentum behind its Access to Finance Declaration before COP31. SIDS and LDCs face higher barriers in accessing climate finance, mainly related to structural constraints (small economies, constrained fiscal space, currency volatility and high perceived risk that keep them out of capital markets), fragmented climate funds with inconsistent access procedures, and limited institutional capacity to develop and absorb finance. The PreCOP could bring together countries and Development Finance Institutions willing to attach dated deliverables to a few key actions for SIDS and LDCs, such as aligning accreditation or shortening approval times.
Connecting an annual access report to the New Collective Quantified Goal reporting (in 2028), would tie the declaration into existing processes and build confidence in the delivery of the NCQG and the tripling of adaptation finance. This would enable vulnerable countries to implement their adaptation plans, unblocking the gridlock seen in the Global Goal on Adaption negotiations in Bonn earlier this year.
Resilience and Adaption: From architecture to delivery
COP30 adopted 59 indicators under the Global Goal on Adaptation, but technical work to operationalise them – including agreeing implementation metrics for finance, technology and capacity-building – remains unfinished and delays risk the indicators missing input to the second Global Stocktake entirely. The PreCOP should push for concrete progress, alongside support for developing countries to translate global targets into National Adaption Plans, rather than an additional reporting burden. Over 150 global ocean and climate leaders have also called on Türkiye and Australia to make COP31 a genuine “Blue COP”, embedding ocean priorities across finance, mitigation and adaptation, and unlocking investment through credible blue carbon management. Progress toward tripling adaptation finance by 2035 must also be tracked with real numbers. Above all, discussions at PreCOP need to be specific and measurable – vague pledges won’t close the $215–387 bn annual adaptation finance gap developing countries already face.
Elevating Pacific voices and leadership
At the PIF, climate was recognised as the biggest security threat to the Pacific, with explicit language in the communique acknowledging the transition away from fossil fuels, 100% renewable energy future for the Pacific, electrification, access to finance, the International Court of Justice decision on climate change and climate mobility. The Pacific has a multi-generational record of climate leadership, and there is no clearer moment in the international calendar to embed Pacific priorities into the PreCOP agenda in advance of COP31 to ensure that Pacific leadership on climate action is not in vain.
