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Keeping 1.5 alive

The G20+ emissions gap to close this year

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World leaders consult before annoucing the Glasgow Climate Pact at COP26 in 2021. Photo via UN climate change on flickr.
World leaders consult before annoucing the Glasgow Climate Pact at COP26 in 2021. Photo via UN climate change on flickr.

This paper looks at what the world’s biggest economies need to do this year to keep 1.5°C alive.

It covers the G20, a group accounting for around 75% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, along with host countries of COP27 and COP28: Egypt and the United Arab Emirates respectively.

It has been written by co-authors from WRI, ECIU and E3G. Read the report here.

Highlights

  • Countries agreed on the Glasgow Climate Pact at the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow in November 2021. They sent a clear signal of the need to do more to close the current emissions gap to 1.5°C in this decade.
  • All countries need to decide this year how they’ll do more before 2030 to keep 1.5°C alive, both raising the ambition of their climate targets and setting out clear policies and plans for delivering on their promises.
  • Countries that did not submit new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) last year should do so as soon as possible in advance of COP27.
  • Countries without 1.5°C-aligned climate emissions pledges should revise and strengthen their 2030 emissions climate targets by the end of 2022 – especially the G20 group of major emitters responsible for around 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Implementation of climate targets is critical to turn promises into action. Countries have an opportunity to deliver on the sectoral pledges they have committed to at COP26 and should reflect these in their NDCs. They can also explore further sectoral pledges they could sign to implement their 2030 targets in their NDCs. For all countries, implementation requires further policies and crucially investment to deliver real emissions reductions.
  • The geopolitical context has changed considerably since COP26, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Many nations are looking to speed up decarbonisation to end their reliance on fossil fuels and therefore cut off finance flows into Russia; that could provide significant scope for enhanced ambition in those nations’ NDCs.

Key findings

Australia, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico did not enhance their 2030 climate targets when they updated their NDCs last year. Submitting enhanced NDCs aligned with a 1.5C pathway is a priority.

  1. Egypt, India and Turkey did not yet submit a new or updated NDC and should do so before COP27.
  2. China, Russia and Saudi Arabia submitted 2030 emissions reduction targets that are enhanced compared to their previous NDCs, but there is still considerable scope to improve their 2030 emissions reduction commitments in light of the significant delay in sector transitions to date.
  3. The remaining countries covered in this paper have enhanced their 2030 emissions reduction targets but are still not on a 1.5°C pathway and should still revisit and strengthen them this year. Crucially, they need to put forward plans and policies to implement the ambition they have set out.
  4. Egypt, India and Turkey did not yet submit a new or updated NDC and should do so before COP27.
  5. China, Russia and Saudi Arabia submitted 2030 emissions reduction targets that are enhanced compared to their previous NDCs, but there is still considerable scope to improve their 2030 emissions reduction commitments in light of the significant delay in sector transitions to date.
  6. The remaining countries covered in this paper have enhanced their 2030 emissions reduction targets but are still not on a 1.5°C pathway and should still revisit and strengthen them this year. Crucially, they need to put forward plans and policies to implement the ambition they have set out.

                                

Read the report here.

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