- The European Commission presented its proposal for a 90% net GHG emission reduction compared to 1990 levels for 2040. Together with the -55% target by 2030, this interim milestone puts the EU on course towards climate neutrality by 2050 and gives predictability on the way forward. The Commission will develop a post-2030 policy framework to ensure a timely and effective delivery of the target, the timing of which will be clarified at the end of 2025.
- Amid hesitations and delays, this proposal is a welcome signal of the EU’s reaffirmed commitment to using decarbonisation as a tool to attract investments to boost competitiveness for its industries while strengthening its resilience and energy independency.
- European Parliament and Member States have to work under a short deadline to agree on the 2040 target and enable the submission of an updated NDC for the UNFCCCs NDC Synthesis Report in September. As an already highly politically tested proposal, it would be reasonable to show unity and focus on the next steps to further develop this framework.
- As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, the EU has committed to update its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) every five years. Deriving the EU’s 2035 milestone in its next NDC from the 2040 target and submitting it in time for the UNFCCCs NDC Synthesis Report in September will significantly enhance the EU’s legitimacy in the UNFCCC process and will raise the stakes for other major emitters and international partners before COP30.
Story
The European Commission today presented its proposal for a 2040 climate target. This intermediate target is an economic, scientific and legal requirement on the road to net-zero by 2050. The Commission has proposed an overall net GHG emissions reduction target of 90% relative to 1990 levels, while opening the door to a number of “flexibilities” designed to build political support for this target. The proposal also lists several elements that will enter into consideration for the preparation of the legislation implementing the 90% target.
The EU’s climate commissioner underwent months of extensive consultation with Member States and the European Parliament. The proposal represents as accurate a picture of the EU’s current level of climate ambition as can be. The process must now speed up to translate proposals into action and send the right message to international and domestic audiences:
- This level of ambition must be reflected at COP30 through the quick adoption of the EU’s 2025-2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The EU is running out of time for its NDC submission to be impactful on global ambition, with only a few weeks ahead of the deadline for inclusion in the UNFCCC synthesis report on 30 September. Member States, the Commission and the Danish Presidency must reach a deal as quickly as possible.
- As the first major climate announcement of the second Von der Leyen Commission, the 2040 target reaffirms the EU’s commitment to decarbonisation as an enabler of competitiveness, energy security and resilience in the face of climate impacts. The 2040 target sends a clear signal to the growing community of businesses and investors who are committed to deliver the climate and energy transition on the ground.
- The 2040 target also sends a reassuring message to the more than 80% of European citizens across the Union who consider climate change as a serious problem requiring urgent action, and who are suffering from the ongoing heatwaves and record temperatures. In France, Hungary, Croatia and Sweden over 85% of respondents support the EU’s 2050 goal of carbon-neutrality.
- Following the US’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and building on the UK’s 1.5C-aligned NDC, Europe signals other countries that clean technologies are the future of competitiveness and that Europe remains a reliable partner in the transition.
Whereas the advice of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change recommended a net domestic reduction of at least 90%, the Commission has proposed to include international credits based on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to account for up to 3% of emissions starting in 2036.
Quotes
Manon Dufour, Executive Director, E3G Brussels said:
“The EU represents a powerful economy and 449 million people, both made more secure through sustained climate action at home and abroad. The EU can confidently demonstrate the unstoppable momentum of the energy transition, and the benefits it has yielded for its economy and people.
“It was high time the EU showed conviction in the trajectory and leadership of the climate transition globally, and so we are glad to finally see this statement of intent.
“Denmark’s been handed an unnecessarily tough job – that of getting all European governments to work and agree something during the summer months – but the preparations will pay off. They have to.”
Elisa Giannelli, Programme Lead for EU Politics and Climate Governance, E3G Brussels said:
“Today, the Commission clarifies that this mandate has chosen decarbonisation as the driving force to anchor competitiveness, unlock clean investment, and cut reliance on volatile energy imports. While not flawless, the proposal reflects intense calibration. The ball is now in the co-legislators’ court: swift endorsement would cement unity on the direction of travel and rise up to the expectations of citizens facing escalating climate impacts.”
Cosima Cassel, Programme Lead for Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics, E3G Berlin said:
“The Commission’s 2040 target proposal lays the groundwork to derive an ambitious, and science-based 2035 target for the EU’s NDC. To maintain momentum and credibility, Member States must formally adopt the NDC in September, enabling its inclusion in the upcoming UN assessment of countries’ emissions reductions, set to inform COP30.
“A timely NDC submission would send a clear signal to other major emitters including China, India, Japan, Australia and Mexico to step up their own ambition ahead of COP. With the United States withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, it is even more critical that the EU steps up to lead the charge in safeguarding global climate stability.”
Available for comment
Manon Dufour, Executive Director, Brussels (EN, FR) – EU politics
Manon.dufour@e3g.org | +32 (0) 477 76 78 01
Elisa Giannelli – E3G Programme Lead (EN, IT, FR) – EU politics, 2040 target
Elisa.Giannelli@e3g.org | + 32 (0) 494 58 48 29
Cosima Cassel – E3G Programme Lead (EN, DE, ES) – Multilateral climate diplomacy, UNFCCC
Cosima.Cassel@e3g.org | +49 (0) 160 339 0883
Domien Vangenechten – E3G Programme Lead (EN, NL) –Clean Industrial Deal delivery Domien.Vangenechten@e3g.org | +32 (0) 474 87 18 27
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Notes to Editors
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