E3G has been developing our political analysis for the 2015 agreement for several years. This analysis builds on several strands of work including:
- Global drivers and trends analysis to 2030 to identify critical factors which will shape climate change
- Annual Political Scenario analysis – identify the political space ahead of the COPs and the potential outcomes given the political dynamics and drivers
- Political Economy mapping and analysis of 20 key emitting economies – understanding the opportunities and obstacles, in both the real-economy and political system to increasing ambition.
The aim of these strategic scenarios which have been tested with a variety of actors from across the geographic and political spectrum is to encourage discussion on prioritising strategic action, as opposed to recommending policy.
The analysis identifies the strategic interventions required to build an ambitious outcome in 2015 and was presented by Nick Mabey at the Chatham House climate change conference and can be downloaded above.