Gas boilers pose critical threat to UK national security

The heavy gas reliance of UK homes presents a critical threat to the UK’s national security:

1. The UK’s gas infrastructure is highly vulnerable to attack with supply concentrated in just four locations.
2. High and volatile oil and gas prices linked to conflicts and chokepoints have caused immense economic damage to the UK economy and the UK’s financial exposure will not improve however much oil and gas is drilled in the North Sea, which is in terminal decline.
3. Household finances have been damaged through higher energy and food bills. This weakens public confidence in government to improve quality of life, destabilising democracy.
   In response to this combined security threat, the UK must shore up its ‘home front’ by accelerating the affordable electrification of UK homes and decentralising the UK energy system.

The full report, executive summary and recommendations are published today and at this link and formally launched at today’s Climate Security Forum day in partnership with King’s College and E3G.

Story

The overwhelming dependence of UK homes on gas poses a critical national security risk according to a new report, The Home Front, released today by the independent climate change think E3G and the Kings College Department of War Studies.

Around 85% of homes are heated using gas, and this produces significant risks to the UK’s security, economy and political system. The heavy gas reliance of UK homes presents a critical threat to the UK’s national security as risks combine.

The UK depends on just four highly clustered national supply nodes for import, processing and distribution of gas, which are highly vulnerable to attack. These nodes are:

1. St Fergus Gas Terminal on the northeast coast of Scotland (25–50% of UK gas supply)
2. Bacton hydrocarbon gas processing plant near Great Yarmouth (up to 33% of UK gas supply)
3. Isle of Grain LNG Terminal in Kent (up to 25% of UK gas supply)
4. South Hook & Dragon LNG Terminal near Milford Haven (up to 20% of gas supply).

In contrast, the UK’s existing and expanding electricity network consists of over 1.7 million renewable generation sites and electricity prices based on a clean power system are far more stable. Clustered gas infrastructure positions present serious defence challenges and are not rapidly repairable in the event of attack. The pipelines are actively being scoped by highly capable Russian undersea warfare and seabed sabotage divisions. Supply of oil and gas is also at major risk due to international choke points, as experienced this year following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict in Iran has led to Ofgem raising the energy price cap this summer by 13% – pushing energy bills up by an average of £221 a year. The economic vulnerability of the UK’s dependence on oil and gas is severe, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine alone causing £183 billion in damage to the UK economy, raising the average household energy by £2200. No amount of drilling in the North Sea would protect households from this risk as the price of oil and gas is set on the international market and the UK North Sea basin is in terminal geological decline.

Fossil fuel dependence hits the poorest households in society hardest. In 2024, households spent, on average, 8% of their income on energy, but for low-income households this goes up to as much as 41%.22 This drives wealth inequality, which erodes faith that government can address the challenges that threaten them. This also makes UK citizens more vulnerable to disinformation as grievances erode political legitimacy and democratic strength. Taken together with climate effects, fossil fuel reliance constitutes a severe threat to life and livelihoods.

Lt Gen (Retd) Richard Nugee CB CVO CBE, Former Defence Non-Executive Director for Climate Change and Sustainability, said,

“Being prepared makes an attack less likely. Yet we have allowed the concept of deterrence and resilience to slip since the Cold War, despite the fact that NATO Article 3 encourages countries to build homeland resilience as part of its armoury of defence. The overwhelming gas dependence of UK homes makes us very vulnerable to national security threats and urgent action is needed to reduce the risk and increase our resilience.”

The lessons to take from Ukraine’s defence against Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure are that there is a need to electrify and decentralise energy to ensure a resilient supply. And the UK must rapidly wean itself off oil and gas in order to strengthen national security.

The top recommendations of the report are for the government to:

1. Launch a national “Home Front Mission” to accelerate electrification of UK homes and establish a plan to phase out oil and gas for home heating.
2. Prioritise a more strategically decentralised, more secure energy system at pace.
3. Prioritise diversification of supply chains for clean energy technologies and develop incentives to maximise UK clean tech manufacturing.
4. Identify gas dependence as a security threat and classify it as a “chronic risk” in the National Risk Register.
5. Government and Joint Intelligence Committee to launch a joint inquiry into action by hostile states, malign actors and special interest lobbyists to spread disinformation regarding clean energy.

Quotes

Leo Vincent, lead report author & a Senior Policy Advisor for E3G said

“Displacing gas as the predominant means of home heating is a national security imperative. Fossil fuel infrastructure is significantly more vulnerable to attack than a decentralised, electrified energy system. Turning to our terminally depleted North Seas oil and gas reserves is a security gamble we’d be sure to lose. As a nation, we must act fast to strengthen our home front resilience”.

Faith Hammond, report author & a Senior Policy Advisor for E3G said:

“The UK housing stock’s overreliance on gas for home heating represents a severe macro-economic threat and leaves households financially vulnerable. Each time geopolitical tensions escalate abroad and gas prices spike, British households are left footing the bill. Price shocks don’t stop at skyrocketing energy bills, they ripple through the economy threatening mortgage portfolios, insurance markets, and damaging economic growth.”

Dr Pauline Heinrichs, report author & Lecturer in War Studies at King’s College Department of War Studies said:

“The UK cannot militarise itself out of insecurity. A new security strategy must address the sources of insecurity, starting with fossil fuel dependence. Fossil fuels drive up energy and food bills during crises, increase inequality and expose the UK to direct impacts from climate change. Unless the UK security strategy addresses public exposure to fossil fuel threats, it will be a security strategy in name alone”.

Available for comment

Leo Vincent (EN), Lead Author and Senior Policy Advisor, UK Energy Team
m: +44 7729 119184 | e: leo.vincent@e3g.org

Ed Matthew (EN), UK Executive Director, E3G
m: +44 7827 157906 | e: ed.matthew@e3g.org

Notes to editors

E3G is an independent think tank working to deliver a safe climate for all. We drive systemic action on climate by identifying barriers and constructing coalitions to advance the solutions needed. We create spaces for honest dialogue, and help guide governments, businesses and the public on how to deliver change at the page the planet demands. About E3G.

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King’s College London Department of War Studies is one of the only academic departments in the world focused on understanding the complex realm of conflict, security, and international politics through inter-disciplinary teaching, research and engagement. The Department sits in the School of Security Studies alongside the Defence Studies Department, forming the largest community of scholars in the world dedicated to producing world-leading research on all aspects of security and international relations. Their research develops new empirical knowledge, employs innovative theory, and addresses vital policy issues.