The stakes are high for the EU in terms of its leadership in the global economic transition. 10 years on, the Paris Agreement has galvanized cooperation and lowered climate risks, delivering security and economic benefits for Europe along the way. Now it is time for the EU to demonstrate that it is still in, with a science-based 2040 climate target ahead of key international dialogues.
Story
- On 2 July, the European Commission is expected to present its proposal for a 2040 net emissions reduction target. Its own Impact Assessment and the scientific advice of the ESABCC recommend a domestic target of at least -90%, which is feasible and necessary to reach net-zero in 2050 and boost the EU’s competitiveness.
- Major business and investor voices have called for a 90% net emissions reduction target to provide much-needed investor certainty.
- In addition to its domestic 2040 target, the EU needs to adopt an ambitious 2035 target as part of its Nationally Determined Contribution ahead of the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Ambition Summit in September. As a signatory of the Paris Agreement, the EU is accountable for updating its NDC in line with the agreement’s five-year cycle and progression requirements. These commitments are not just political signals, but obligations under international law and vital contributions to global climate safety.
- With the US having previously withdrawn from and only recently rejoined the Agreement, the EU’s level of ambition continues to shape not only expectations but also the actions and commitments of major emitters and international partners. Basing the updated NDC on an adopted, science-based 2040 target would significantly enhance its legitimacy within the UNFCCC process.
- With over a year of delay based on the timeframe set by the European Climate Law, the Danish Presidency of the Council of the EU is committed to promptly advance the negotiations despite little time left before COP30.
Quotes
Manon Dufour, Executive Director, E3G Brussels said:
“Europe’s clean economy is driving growth – powering over a quarter of it. As capital exits the US over rising risks perceptions, the EU could position itself as a safe haven for sustainable investment. But to seize this moment, Europe must show it is sticking to the plan. The 2040 climate target is a crucial signal amid the noise of rollbacks and delays.”
Elisa Giannelli, Programme Lead for EU Politics and Climate Governance, E3G Brussels said:
“At the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement and with climate impacts intensifying, hesitation is not an option. EU’s political credibility and clarity are both at stake—investors, businesses, and citizens expect predictability. The Danish Presidency, the European Commission and the Member States will need to negotiate quickly, and in the spirit of sincere cooperation, to deliver a deal that reaffirms the EU’s commitment to decarbonisation, the cornerstone of its competitiveness, before COP this year.”
Steffen Menzel, Programme Lead for Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics, E3G Berlin said:
“The EU has long been a champion of the international climate regime – and can take pride in the Paris Agreement’s impact. Ten years on, global climate risks have been cut substantially: projected warming has halved, from over 5°C to around 2.5°C today, thanks to collective action the EU helped shape. A science-based 2040 target must form the foundation of a credible and ambitious 2035 NDC – one that sets a benchmark for other major emitters, reassures citizens and industry, and signals to international partners that Europe is honouring its international commitments.”
Available for comment
Manon Dufour, Executive Director, Brussels (EN, FR) – EU politics
Manon.dufour@e3g.org | +32 (0) 477 76 78 01
Elisa Giannelli – E3G Programme Lead (EN, IT, FR) – EU politics, 2040 target
Elisa.Giannelli@e3g.org | + 32 (0) 494 58 48 29
Steffen Menzel – E3G Programme Lead (EN, DE) – EU NDC, climate diplomacy
Steffen.menzel@e3g.org | +49 (0) 151 5120 1182
E3G is also offering background briefings on the details and wider context. See notes on background to story below.
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Notes to Editors
- The European Commission is expected to release its legislative proposal for a 2040 climate target on 2 July, with over a year of delay based on the timeframe set by the European Climate Law. A 2040 target communication was released in 2024, anticipating a 90% emission reduction target based on the Commission’s own Impact Assessment and scientific advice of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change. The establishment of a 2040 domestic target is closely linked to the submission and the quality of an updated EU NDC before COP30 in Brazil.
- The proposal was first expected in February 2025 but was delayed due to the Commission’s assessment that they lacked a political majority behind the 90%. As a result, different flexibility options are currently under consideration to enlarge the range of supporters. The inclusion of international credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement risks undermining the integrity of the domestic climate target and is raising criticisms from CSOs.
- A strong political signal is needed now. Accelerating the clean energy transition is not just an environmental imperative, it is also central to Europe’s economic future. A recent global poll shows that 97% of business leaders support a rapid shift to renewables-based electricity. In 2023, clean technologies accounted for nearly 30% of EU GDP
- 85% of respondents to the latest Eurobarometer consider climate change a serious problem for the world, and over three quarters (77%) agree that the cost of damage caused by climate change outweighs the cost of transitioning to a climate-neutral economy.
- Europe’s critical role in the global climate transition to a clean economy is explored in these background pieces:
- E3G is an independent climate change think tank with a global outlook. We work on the frontier of the climate landscape, tackling the barriers and advancing the solutions to a safe climate. Our goal is to translate climate politics, economics and policies into action. About – E3G
- For further enquiries email press@e3g.org or phone +44 (0)7783 787 863.
- Register for our journalist WhatsApp briefing service to receive updates and analysis for key geopolitical and climate events over 2025 on the road to COP30: E3G WhatsApp registration for journalists – E3G.
