The world’s second fossil fuel crisis in less than five years is making the case for clean, secure power clearer than ever. Countries are recognising that the only long-term protection against volatile and insecure fossil fuels is a renewables-based power system and a more electrified economy.
- Countries with high renewables penetration have seen tangible insulation from price shocks. Pakistan’s solar boom is predicted to save at least US$6.3 billion this year, while the EU’s solar fleet reduced its gas import bill by 32% between 1 and 17 March. While both remain exposed to price fluctuations in international fossil fuel markets – with the EU’s bill for fossil fuel imports increasing by over €22 billion in the first 44 days of the conflict – renewable capacity has provided some protection.
- Many fossil fuel-dependent economies are calling for accelerated renewables deployment to boost power system resilience and secure energy supply. The Philippines’ Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin described renewables deployment as “a strategic necessity and a national imperative”. South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung acknowledged that “If we rely on fossil energy, the future will be extremely risky.” President Prabowo Subianto of Indonesia referred to coal as the “reserve of last resort“, advocating for a rapid shift to solar energy.
- This pro-renewables rhetoric is backed by policy measures to accelerate and incentivise the transition to a cleaner energy system. In Indonesia, President Prabowo has promised to phase out fossil fuels within 10–15 years and shift to 100% clean power in the electricity system. He established a Solar Power Taskforce with a mandate to deliver 100GW of solar power by 2030, with an initial installation target of 17GW this year. India is accelerating clearances of wind power plants and battery energy storage systems, and the Turkish government has pledged to invest US$80 billion into renewable energy by 2035 to reach its 120GW target.
For countries reliant on oil and gas imports choked off at the Strait of Hormuz, soaring inflationary pressures have led to the announcement of energy emergencies, the implementation of demand-side response measures, and short-term policies designed to keep the lights on while energy supply is threatened.
In this context, some countries have temporarily increased coal power plant utilisation rates or delayed retirements of existing coal plants as an emergency measure. For example, South Korea has delayed the phase-out of three coal-fired power plants scheduled for decommissioning this year, and has lifted the 80% utilisation cap on coal. Japan, Germany, Italy and Thailand are implementing or considering similar measures.
However, any short-term bounce in coal consumption simply masks a longer-term structural decline.
The EU banned Russian fossil fuels in 2022 after its invasion of Ukraine, prompting predictions of a coal resurgence. Instead, what followed were record-breaking declines in EU coal consumption and a major initiative, REPowerEU, to accelerate a structural shift to clean power.
In today’s fossil fuel crisis, we have yet to see a coal bounce. Year-on-year coal power generation flatlined in March 2026 thanks to increases in generation from solar (14%) and wind (8%). This follows the 2025 trend: all new electricity demand is now being met with clean power.
Even in Asia, which is particularly exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to its dependence on imported oil and gas, the scope for growth of coal consumption is limited. This reflects the region’s already high coal dependency and the fact that a third of total LNG imports from Qatar and the UAE are used outside of the power sector (e.g., fertiliser), where coal is not a viable substitute.
Unlike a fossil-based energy system, a clean-power dominated energy mix does not require the continuous purchase of fuel from a limited set of suppliers. Instead, it enables a more diverse group of countries to harness their renewable resources for electricity generation. Supply chain diversification, strategic international partnerships and recycling of critical materials can all strengthen energy security and resilience of clean power-based systems further.
Countries are increasingly recognising the clean energy transition as a strategic priority for economic growth, security and affordability. The first Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, held last week in Santa Marta, Colombia, was an opportunity to translate this recognition into practical action, shifting from ambition-setting to the harder politics of managing fossil fuel decline and ensuring long-term energy security.
