The COP31 Presidents’ target of meeting 35% of final energy consumption from electricity by 2035 – dubbed “35-by-35” – delivers enormous economic and energy security benefits when powered by clean energy. Our analysis of recent reports has provided a set of climate benchmarks for a 1.5 °C-aligned pathway into the 2030s. These benchmarks can be used to inform policy and drive ambition. Achieving that ambition, however, depends on accelerated renewable energy deployment and more targeted support for end-use electrification. Thankfully, it is already cost-effective to raise electrification levels to 33% today.
Three consequential reports released this year together show how electrification powered by clean sources delivers maximum benefit to governments, consumers and the climate.
They show that hitting a 35% electrification target delivers deep cuts to power sector emissions when powered by renewables under a net zero pathway. An accelerated electrification drive also helps to bridge a yawning implementation gap, especially on energy efficiency, provides significant energy security benefits and cuts total energy emissions.
The electrification agenda can therefore help to address major shortcomings in the global stocktake (GST) goal of doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030, and forms a critical part of the transition away from fossil fuel (TAFF) agenda.
The GST goals previously set us three critical benchmarks for the transition through to 2030, including accelerated coal phase-down efforts. Thanks to the new analyses, we can now set out a 1.5 °C-aligned route through 2030 and out to 2035 and beyond. These benchmarks can help underpin ambition and inform policy.
The benchmarks are based on analysis of these reports:
- IEA’s electrification report, published in September
- IRENA’s report on progress towards the GST goals, also published in September
- IRENA’s report on the TAFF initiative from May of this year.
Clean electrification delivers maximum benefits across the economy
The IEA report examines raising the share of electricity in total final energy consumption from 23% today to 35% by 2035 – what it calls the “High Electrification Scenario” (HES). Under this scenario, 18 million barrels of oil could be avoided every day, countries save more than $500 billion from their import bills, and consumers’ average bill drops by 15% by 2035.
It assesses three different power supply cases for the HES and finds that economic and climate benefits are maximised when electrification is powered by clean energy, not fossil fuels.
The IRENA report tracks progress toward the GST goals of tripling renewable power capacity to 11.2 TW, doubling annual energy efficiency gains by 2030, and the transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF).
It shows how despite record renewables growth, we are still shy of the 11.2 TW tripling target, with annual renewable deployment needing to double by 2030. Meanwhile, energy efficiency progress is critically lagging, and the required annual improvement rate is now up to 5.6% per year through 2030. On top of that, grid systems are at capacity with more than 2.5 TW of clean energy generation waiting in connection queues.
The benchmarks necessary for a 1.5 °C pathway
The table below presents a set of climate benchmarks across key sectors of the transition, from electrification to coal phase-out to transition finance. It was constructed by analysing the net zero pathway from the three reports referenced above.
| Sector / indicator | 2030 target (UAE Consensus) | 2035 milestone (35-by-35) | 2050 long-term ambition (TAFF) |
| Electrification share (total final energy consumption) | ~30% share | 35% share | >50% share |
| Renewable power capacity | 11.2 TW (65% of power generation) | 18.4 TW (78% of power generation) | 38.2 TW (92% of power generation) |
| Annual renewable additions | 1.2 TW / year (average 2026–2030) | 1.2–1.5 TW / year (solar doubles, wind 2.5×) | Capacity replacement & system maintenance |
| Coal benchmarks & phase-out | OECD unabated coal phase-out; no new coal construction in RoW, accelerated coal phase-down efforts | Global power sector coal demand drops >70%; power coal falls >75% in OECD/China | Complete global phase-out of unabated coal (non-OECD phase-out by 2040) |
| Efficiency improvement rate | 5.6% / year (2026–2030 rate required) | 3.0% / year average | 2.5% / year average |
| Energy storage capacity | 1,500 GW (COP29 pledge) | 2,530–2,900 GW battery storage | 6,859 GW total energy storage |
| Annual grid investment | $800–$902 billion / year | $1.0 trillion / year | $1.2 trillion / year |
| Total transition investment | $5.8 trillion / year (2026–2030) | $3.5 trillion / year | Sustained structural shift in capital allocation |
| Fossil share in primary energy | Structural demand decline initiated | 48% of primary energy supply | 15% of primary energy supply |
Countries should plan for clean power, electrification and TAFF simultaneously
Global electricity demand needs to grow by around 4% annually through 2030 under the HES, with emerging economies accounting for nearly 80% of this increase. The critical climate challenge is therefore determining what power sources meet this new demand.
Coal currently supplies 33% of global electricity and causes 73% of power sector emissions. Meeting rising electricity demand with coal and other fossil fuels risks deepening fossil lock-in, whereas powering electrification with clean energy delivers advantages across multiple fronts: driving renewables investment, lowering long-run energy costs, enhancing energy security, and deepening emissions reductions.
To displace coal and other fossil fuels under a high electrification scenario, governments must overcome major barriers. Key routes to doing so include:
- Integrate system planning. Governments must start planning electrification and coal phase-down in tandem. Energy and finance ministries must merge rising demand, clean build-out, and coal retirement into a single national pathway.
- Fast-track grid expansion, permitting and digitalisation. System operators should replace “first-come, first-served” grid queues with project readiness criteria and deploy grid-enhancing technologies to unlock short-term grid capacity, while enabling investments into longer-term transmission projects.
- Develop consumer incentives to drive bottom-up electrification. Governments should provide incentives for electrification, particularly for lower-income households and small businesses. Currently, 33% of global energy consumption can be electrified cost-effectively and consumers can help deliver this.
- Embed actions within growing international TAFF frameworks. States should treat fossil fuel transitions, clean power and electrification as mutually reinforcing agendas within TAFF frameworks such as the Santa Marta process and the COP30 Presidency Roadmap.
- Provide greater finance to support renewables rollout in EMDEs. Donor countries should provide more grants and concessional finance to support EMDEs in the short term, while using their voting rights over public banks to encourage a reform to the international financial architecture in the medium term.
- Leverage established partnership offers. Governments should take up emerging partnership offers to support their transitions. These include the Turkish Global Implementation Accelerator, the Powering Past Coal Alliance’s (PPCA) partnership offer, and the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance’s (BOGA) TAFF roadmap support.
Our path to a cleaner, safer, healthier world, requires concerted action across government, business and civil society. The reports have outlined where we need to go, and we now know the milestones and benchmarks we must reach along the way. Time to get moving.
