In this era of geopolitical turbulence and change, the credibility and direction of global cooperation on climate is facing the ultimate test. With the framework for implementing the Paris Agreement now completed, the broad climate regime must evolve to support accelerating implementation as it addresses a new geopolitical reality. This will require shifting the focus of the UNFCCC, more broadly embedding climate action in economic and security agendas, advancing targeted cooperation where interests align, and working more closely with real-world actors to ensure the enabling conditions are there to accelerate the transition at the pace needed.
Geopolitics is not only shaping the pace of transition but redefining the terms of cooperation itself. Conflict in the Middle East has returned energy security to the heart of geopolitics, and major power competition is intensifying. At the same time, the transition to a clean economy is gaining momentum through growing markets across regions, investment in industrial strategy, and continuing technological change, creating new opportunities alongside rising tensions.
With climate-related harm and damages already high, and rising, the climate regime must develop quickly to be able to drive delivery in the current context. The 2028 Global Stocktake and 2030 cycle of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will be key moments that will test the UNFCCC’s success in this regard.
Priority actions for climate cooperation over the next 3–5 years
- Further embed and reenergise climate action in economic, security and foreign policy agendas. Climate action is more likely to advance where it aligns with the political priorities of growth, competitiveness and resilience.
- Shape and support a comprehensive climate regime. International climate cooperation is a year-round effort to support implementation, mobilise investment, and connect international processes more directly with real-economy transformation.
- Keep NDCs at the heart of implementation and delivery. NDCs are crucial for judging whether countries’ climate commitments are translating into investment, infrastructure and real-economy transformation.
Short-term priorities to make sure this year’s pre-COP and COP31 can build confidence for this shift
- Stabilise and sustain political support for international climate cooperation and action. Reinforce the case for engagement, including the scientific basis for climate response. The role of clean energy security and electrification in responding to oil price shocks can also help to build commitment, as can ensuring resilience builds political support given the increased climate impacts – from heatwaves and wildfires to El Niño scenarios.
- Shift to implementation. Focus on operationalising recent outcomes and associated initiatives through credible implementation pathways, rather than reopening negotiations. Prioritise areas where tangible progress can be demonstrated in the short term.
- Set the direction for the next Global Stocktake and 2030 NDCs. This includes ensuring that NDCs will be more tightly linked to economic and industrial strategies, and real-economy transformation.
- Refocus climate diplomacy on delivery, outcomes and flexibility. Keep climate at the top of leaders’ agendas while broadening ownership beyond environment ministries. Use a wider range of fora and partnerships to pursue cooperation where it can deliver concrete results and accelerate implementation.
- Maintain momentum across key thematic areas and partnerships where cooperation and implementation matter. This includes themes such as resilience, finance, electrification and methane, and rebuilding trust between partners to forge durable coalitions. This might mean developing new forms of cooperation to better reflect the world that is and will be.
