We are nearly halfway through the year, and geopolitical turbulence is proving to reach a different order of magnitude than we had even predicted in January. Climate leadership and multilateralism face significant strain as economic headwinds and deepening fragmentation challenge the increasingly multipolar international order. Meanwhile, despite other crises capturing political attention, climate impacts only further intensify. Leaders must recognize that bold and sustained climate leadership is not only a moral imperative – it is the smart play and a vital pillar of international cooperation, cohesion, and stability now and in the future.
Current trends and the climate imperative
The scale and pace of geopolitical disruption in the first half of the year has played out against a backdrop of increasing climate devastation. This Spring experienced the second hottest April on record. 2024 saw 605 extreme weather events, 148 of which were classified as unprecedented, leading to the highest number of displacements since 2008, and losses of over $320bn worldwide.
Exposing the fragility of international cooperation, immediate economic, trade, security and geopolitical shocks and uncertainties are absorbing leaders’ attention, making it clear that we are facing a polycrisis. At the same time in 2024, global investment in clean energy was approximately $2 trillion, nearly double the investment in fossil fuels. That figure is set to increase again in 2025. Climate leadership is necessary strategic statecraft to navigate these waters and maximize the opportunities ahead.
Climate cooperation has worked – and we need to pick up the pace to ensure a positive transition trajectory
Since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, over 190 countries have joined, and projected global warming has fallen. Financing for climate action from both public and private sources, while not enough to meet the need, has been mobilized. Essential initiatives across sectors and industries have also been forged to drive action and public support has also grown.
2025 marks a critical test for global climate ambition, the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, and the moment emissions must peak if we are to keep the 1.5°C target within reach to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change. The world needs decisive leadership that reflects both the geopolitics of the climate crisis and the realities of an encouraging global energy transition, based on these pillars:
- Climate cooperation is delivering – and it must be protected and accelerated
- Clean energy and green technology are reshaping the global economy
- Climate delivery is essential for securing a safe and resilient future for all
The smart play for leaders is clear: climate ambition must not be considered a competing priority but a fundamentally strategic imperative in shaping our current and future security and prosperity. It is the foundation for national resilience, economic renewal, geopolitical relevance, and international stability.
How should leaders galvanize impactful climate action?
The science demonstrates that left unaddressed, we risk crossing tipping points that lead to irreversible and escalating disruption. The rest of 2025 must mark a phase of determined, distributed climate leadership to deliver both climate safety and future prosperity. This means:
Leaders must work together to elevate climate action and ambition as a defining political priority. This requires bold, coordinated leadership and the renewal of climate diplomacy as a strategic tool for shaping international stability and shared prosperity.
It is vital that Europe and the UK exhibit sustained leadership, working closely with partners and within coalitions to align climate ambition and today’s shifting geopolitical landscape. That means, although it will not be the main feature of conversations at next weekend’s G7 summit in Canada, leaders must use their post Summit briefings to reiterate their continued commitment to climate action. They must forge deep cooperation with the Brazilian COP Presidency, South Africa’s G20, and forward-leaning nations such as Mexico, Colombia and Kenya. It also means leaning into the future France G7 and potential COP hosts like Australia, Nigeria, and India. Engagement and partnership with developing countries must extend beyond finance provision to support genuine co-leadership, supporting resilience, adaptation, and industrial collaboration across clean economy value chains.
As the world’s largest emitter, leading clean tech manufacturer, and a key player on the international stage, China holds outsized influence over the direction and pace of the global transition. Structured, constructive climate engagement with China must remain high on Europe and the UK’s agenda, particularly in green technology cooperation and implementation of the Paris Agreement. The EU, UK, and China also share a critical responsibility to support Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in emerging and developing economies, not as technical documents, but as investment blueprints for inclusive, sustainable growth. This involves aligning international support behind countries’ priorities to attract investment, create jobs, and foster local value chains in clean industries.
Key diplomatic events, including the UK–EU Summit which has already yielded tangible progress on climate, energy, resilience and security, as well as the upcoming EU-China Summit, G7, G20, and BRICS Summits, the Financing for Development Conference, and later in the year, the UN General Assembly, are critical moments to put and keep climate back on the leadership agenda. The BRICS group, chaired by Brazil this year, also has a unique opportunity to demonstrate cooperative leadership in driving global ambition forward. This momentum must build towards COP30 in Belém, helping to restore climate leadership and drive collective ambition.
This year, all countries are expected to submit updated climate plans through to 2035, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These plans offer a critical opportunity for governments to chart a course toward sustainable prosperity. However, momentum remains insufficient. Few countries met the formal February deadline, and the window to shape ambition ahead of the next informal deadline for the NDC Synthesis Report in September is closing fast.
NDCs are not just climate pledges or technical exercises, but strategic roadmaps that align national planning with a just, accelerated transition, anchoring investment, development, and resilience. If designed well, NDCs can provide economic benefits, including in the short term. They can anchor policy in long-term public interest and future prosperity, instead of short-sighted responses to momentum politics, which primarily serve the vested interests of the industries of the past.
A handful of countries representing a variety of regions, geographies, stages of economic development, and political influence, including Nepal, Kenya, and the UK, have put forward decent NDCs already, signaling increased ambition in line with development strategies is possible. Across the board, NDCs are improving in depth and quality. Yet, the majority of countries, particularly the major G20 economies, must step up to close the ambition gap. Most prominently, the EU and China need to put forward strong NDCs ahead of the UN Climate Ambition Summit scheduled for September.
So far, visible diplomatic engagement has largely come from the UN and Brazil as COP30 host. UN Secretary-General Guterres and Brazilian President Lula have been reaching out to world leaders and hosting a virtual summit in April, alongside further extensive outreach and strong statements by UNFCCC Executive Secretary Stiell. But Brazil appears cautious not to take full ownership of the Ambition Agenda. Diplomatic efforts must intensify to meet this challenge. Key diplomatic forums such as the upcoming EU–China Summit, G7, G20, and UN General Assembly present crucial opportunities to galvanize political will and secure ambitious, credible NDC commitments ahead of COP30 in Belém.
Ultimately, a step change in political engagement is essential. For countries to be able to provide credible leadership, their NDC updates must reflect the highest possible ambition, align with future-oriented economic plans, seize the opportunities of the clean transition, and protect their societies from escalating climate and energy security risks.
Around the world, renewable energy, energy efficiency, electrification and low-carbon solutions are gaining momentum. Technological advancement has meant the clean economy is delivering tangible benefits globally and powering economic growth in many countries. For example, clean industries contributed 25% of EU economic growth in 2024, while the UK’s clean energy sector grew by 9%, outpacing traditional sectors.
For many nations, investing in widespread electrification, a robust renewable energy infrastructure, and energy efficiency will result in a more affordable and secure energy system. Investment patterns underscore this shift: clean tech investments now outpace fossil fuels two-to-one, while prices for solar panels and electric batteries continue to fall.
The long-term economic case is undeniable. Corporate leaders agree: a recent E3G poll shows that CEOs with capital and influence want to stay the course on clean transition, recognizing it critical for current growth and investment. Key players like insurers increasingly recognize the cost of inaction is rapidly mounting and could be up to six times greater than the cost of taking action.
However, ongoing upheaval continues to test industry confidence. Political leaders can provide the long-term, strategic certainty needed to ensure sustained investments in the technologies of the future. Despite the boom in green energy, emissions are not falling given the role of coal in powering East and South-East Asia’s growth, and the challenges faced by industrialized countries in transitioning away from oil and gas. While China’s emissions have fallen by 1% in the last twelve months, attributed primarily to the rapid growth of renewable energy sources, it must double down on replacing dirty coal in their electricity mix.
The role of partnerships in supporting this transition will also be vital. Alliances such as the Powering Past Coal Alliance, Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, Global Clean Power Alliance, and Clean Heat Forum, among many others, are instrumental in supporting the necessary changes for countries to live up to the commitments made under the Global Stocktake. Leaders must work together to ensure the ecosystem is working coherently and maximizing impact.
2025 has seen a rollback of Official Development Assistance (ODA), constrained fiscal space in partner countries, and growing geopolitical pressures on aid flows. Yet the need for sustained and scaled-up public and private finance, concessional and catalytic, has never been greater. To meet the urgency of climate and development needs, governments must reaffirm commitments to international financing frameworks while pushing for more action on climate and development and freeing up fiscal space in the countries in need. This must unlock greater risk-sharing, concessional lending, new international levies, and mobilisation of private capital. Strategic engagement with the private sector, alongside grant-based support for adaptation and capacity building, will be critical. Political leadership is needed to protect and modernize the international financing system – including through upcoming moments such as the Financing for Development Forum, at the G20, and in the preparation of the Baku to Belem Roadmap – so it delivers for today’s global challenges in an integrated way.
While all countries are feeling the toll of climate impacts, vulnerable and developing nations bear the brunt and have the least capacity to respond. Closing the adaptation finance gap and building global resilience is not just a moral imperative—it’s a strategic one. Building resilience strengthens economies, reduces future costs, and helps maintain regional and global security.
Meeting global adaptation needs requires scaling and improving finance to be more accessible and effective—especially for the communities most at risk. Effective action also depends on embedding resilience into national policy and planning, including national development strategies, National Adaptation Plans, and NDCs, supported by adaptation investment plans. Action-oriented coalitions must serve as the political foundation for driving sustained commitment, reform, and mobilization. These alliances can create the momentum needed to keep resilience on the global agenda. Countries should use the major political moments of 2025—including the G7, G20, Financing for Development, COP30, and the Climate and Development Ministerial as levers to drive impactful, large-scale solutions, unite political will, build technical expertise and strong partnerships.
Making climate a core element of government foreign policy and national security entails top-level integration alongside robust internal coordination mechanisms linking foreign, trade, development, and climate policy fields. Several small island states, for example, have integrated climate into their national security strategies. The recent EU-UK Security and Defense Partnership has committed to strengthening collaboration on climate and security in multilateral fora. Germany has published its First National Interdisciplinary Climate Risk Assessment this year, following the publication of its Strategy on Climate Foreign Policy in 2023. That said, more work is needed to further integrate climate policy into countries’ foreign policy’s apparatus.
Diplomatic capacity must also be strengthened to enable sustained, strategic engagement across trade, climate finance, security, technical cooperation, and capacity building. To drive coherence and ambition, a dedicated high-level climate envoy with strong political backing must be appointed within governments. Equipping embassies with designated climate focal points will anchor country-specific engagement, ensure situational awareness, and foster trust with local counterparts. Such architecture should lay the foundation for long-term climate cooperation, mutually beneficial partnerships, and inclusive policy dialogue.
All of the above will be critical enablers and propellers on the road to Belem. Indeed, COP30 will be a critical inflection point for climate action and implementation across finance, adaptation and mitigation, as the Brazilian COP30 Presidency laid out in its ambitious and hopeful vision for COP30. Its call for global mobilization, and the proposed Circles of Leadership, on Presidencies, Peoples, Finance Ministers and Global Ethical Stocktake, aim to galvanize momentum across all aspects of society and forge a legacy of delivery that sets up the next decade of climate action and implementation of the Paris Agreement. Negotiations must be constructive, and make clear progress that resonates with the public.
Brazil cannot do this alone; all committed countries must take shared responsibility for success in Belem. Leaders must support the mobilization of finance to bring credibility and confidence to the Baku-Belem Roadmap; engage in active diplomacy to bolster the operationalization of the Global Stocktake, including the commitments to double energy efficiency, triple renewables and transition away from fossil fuels; and ensure confidence in delivery both of the finance and technical support needed for countries to update their National Adaptation Plans, as well as their NDCs. If empowered and included, cities, regions, businesses, and civil society can act as key agents of delivery, especially in the context of the Global Stocktake follow-through.
And we must acknowledge that COPs are not working as effectively as they should, especially as the focus shifts from negotiations to implementation. Brazil’s commitment to review governance structures and bring together technology and ancestral wisdom is innovative – but it remains to be seen if it is enough to propel momentum at the pace needed. A fresh approach to multilateral climate action must fit the implementation phase but also work in the current geopolitical reality. Only then will we see a bounce in momentum from Belem that is needed to set the stage for the next chapter of climate cooperation, action, and delivery.
The path to a safer, more resilient and prosperous future hinges on leaders’ understanding of climate and the clean energy transition not as isolated challenges but as core to economic strength, national security, foreign policy and geopolitical strategy. In our interconnected and interdependent world, no country can succeed alone. As we look to Belém and beyond, leaders around the world must heed the call and recommit to climate action, reinvigorate multilateralism, and act together to protect the planet for generations to come.
