Two months ahead of COP30 in Belém, E3G’s NDC Energy Commitments Tracker reveals that while many countries are embedding global energy goals in domestic target setting – particularly on renewable energy and efficiency – none to date have presented a comprehensive plan that aligns with the COP28 energy package.
- In 2025, all countries are due to submit updated or new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through 2035.
- These climate plans are a critical test of how governments are responding to the first Global Stocktake (GST-1).
- Released today, this tracker measures to what extent updated NDCs are demonstrating commitment to tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, phasing down unabated coal, transitioning away from fossil fuels, and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.
- Explore the live tracker here: https://www.e3g.org/publications/ndc-3-0-energy-commitments-tracker/
Story
Since November 2024, 32 countries have submitted updated or new NDCs, covering 21% of global emissions. Of these, 94% of countries have included some form of policy support in their updated NDC to reach at least one of the tracked energy outcomes – on tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, and fossil fuel phaseout. However none so far include reference to meeting all the tracked energy commitments.
Many of the world’s largest emitters, including China, the EU, India and Indonesia, have not yet submitted. The tracker will be updated in the coming weeks with major new developments, including the China and EU NDCs, alongside other key countries including Indonesia, expected around the UN General Assembly (UNGA), particularly the NDC Summit on September 24th.
Key findings include:
- The majority of countries include quantified targets for renewable energy deployment: almost three-quarters (72%, 23/32) of the NDCs submitted to date either quantify their 2035 renewable energy goal, or, in the case of Uruguay and Lesotho, already have such a high penetration of renewables in their power mix that an increase in ambition is not possible.
- Almost all countries – 91% (29/32) – mention improving energy efficiency in their NDC, but less than half with mentions (14/29) provide a quantified target.
- 78% of countries that have submitted new NDCs (25/32 countries) either have no coal in their energy mix, or reference intentions to phase down unabated coal power. Of the countries still using coal, over half (59%, 10/17) mention plans to phase down unabated coal power, with five countries providing a timeline for this effort. Four countries (24% of those with coal, 4/17) include a commitment to stop permitting and building new coal. These are Cambodia, Canada, Singapore and the UK.
- No country has provided a quantified target for winding down oil and gas production. Of the 32 countries that have submitted NDCs in this cycle so far, 17 produce oil or fossil gas. Of these 17, only two – Canada and the United Kingdom (UK) – included a mention of reducing oil and gas production.
- Of the 32 countries that have submitted updated or new NDCs in this cycle, 23 (72%) have not mentioned fossil fuel subsidy reform, despite its inclusion in Paragraph 28.
- Over half (56%, 18/32) of the 2035 NDCs – and of EMDEs, 80% of the 2035 NDCs – submitted to date are conditional (or partly conditional) on international finance, technical assistance, or some other form of support.
Quotes
Katrine Petersen, Senior Policy Advisor, E3G, said:
“Climate plans so far show that countries’ appetite for the economic, security and health benefits of clean energy remain unshaken by geopolitical turbulence. But to accelerate the move away from fossil fuels and cut emissions in line with what’s needed, all countries must step up on ambition and delivery.”
“With the September NDC deadline approaching, leaders must grasp the opportunity to place concrete, ambitious targets to move beyond fossil fuels at the heart of their climate plans, turning momentum on renewables into lasting global prosperity and security.”
Suzie Marshall, Policy Adviser, E3G, said:
“Almost 80% of countries that have submitted new NDCs either have no coal in their electricity mix or reference plans to phase down coal use. This is testament to the fact that there is no future for unabated coal in power systems. A managed exit away from the dirtiest fossil fuel is underway. However, few countries have given specific timelines for their coal phase out, and none have promised to lower oil and gas production. Governments must commit to winding down all fossil fuels to boost domestic energy security and ensure a safe climate for all.”
Dido Gompertz, Policy Advisor, E3G, said:
“Over half of the new NDCs submitted to date – and a striking 80% from emerging markets and developing economies – contain targets conditional on international finance or support. This is a clear signal that without scaled-up financial flows, many countries simply cannot deliver on the energy transition commitments agreed at COP28. To unlock a truly global transition, finance must flow to where it’s needed most.”
– ENDS –
Available for comment
Katrine Petersen, Senior Policy Advisor, Global Clean Power Diplomacy, E3G. katrine.petersen@e3g.org
Suzie Marshall , Policy Advisor, Global Clean Power Diplomacy, E3G. suzie.marshall@e3g.org
Dido Gompertz, Policy Advisor, Global Clean Power Diplomacy, E3G. dido.gompertz@e3g.org
Notes to Editors
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