With a leadership election and a new energy strategy coming up, the next few months will be hugely consequential for Japan’s road to meet the G7 commitment to phase out unabated coal. Policies in the past two decades have promoted “clean coal”, yet Japan’s emissions from coal remain massive. The upcoming strategy marks a critical moment for Japan to course correct and level-up its efforts toward the global race for real, clean energy leadership.
Japan is facing major decisions in the coming months. Its leading political force, the Liberal Democratic Party, will soon elect a new leader who will also become the country’s next Prime Minister. The new leader will quickly be faced with significant decisions both for Japan’s economic future and for the global climate.
As the world’s fifth-largest emitter, Japan’s decisions on its next emissions reduction goal — through the 7th Strategic Energy Plan (SEP), which largely shapes the country’s emissions and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) —will have global repercussions.
In recent years, Japan, alongside its G7 peers, has committed to fully or predominantly decarbonise its power mix by 2035, including phasing out unabated coal during the early 2030s. However, the contrasting lack of ambition in domestic policies raise serious doubts as to how Japan will meet these commitments.
20 years of “clean coal” in Japan’s Strategic Energy Plans
One of the biggest questions for Japan’s energy transition is how the country will address emissions from coal. According to IEA’s 2021 report, coal power is the source of 29% of Japan’s energy-related CO2 emissions, with an additional 12% from coal in industrial and other uses.
While its peers across the OECD are moving away from coal, Japan has kept promoting what it calls “clean coal”. Even now, it persists in hosting an annual “Clean Coal Day” symposium, in cooperation with the ministry responsible for energy policy.
“Clean coal” promotion has deep roots in Japan’s energy policy. A review of its past Strategic Energy Plans reveals how decision makers have, for the past 20 years, claimed various coal technologies would allow continued use of the fuel while curbing emissions.
Coal emission in Japan peaked in 2013 and remain high, reflecting the country’s decision to expand its coal fleet while its G7 peers reduced theirs. Data from Japan’s national grid coordinator indicates these emissions may persist for another decade, as coal continues to play a significant role in the power mix. Additionally, Japan has aggressively exported its “clean coal” technologies to neighbouring countries, leaving many of its partners in Asia with relatively young coal fleets and complex decisions about early retirement.
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Patterns of failure – why “clean coal” has not provided emission-free power
- Efficient Coal Power: Japan has focused on “efficient coal power,” which extracts more energy from less coal through advanced plant designs (e.g., ultra-supercritical or above). Nearly half of Japan’s coal fleet now uses this technology or its variations, though it only reduces CO2 emissions by 15-30% per kWh compared to older models (IEA).
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): Introduced in Japan’s 2007 energy plan, CCS can in theory achieve 90% or deeper emission cuts from coal plants – and indeed must do this to qualify as an abatement technology. However, no coal power plants have been fitted with CCS in Japan so far.
- Coal-Ammonia Co-Firing: Japan is now also promoting co-firing coal and ammonia, but this option is under question for its lack of climate benefits, technical feasibility, and economic outlook. A University of Kyoto study suggests its role will be marginal, even in optimistic scenarios.
Decades of “clean coal” promotion have left coal technologies either high-emitting in the real world, or stuck in a perpetual planning phase. Despite suggestions by the Japanese government, most of these technologies do not meet definitions of abatement, and thus must be phased out to meet climate commitments. It is time to look towards real clean energy solutions.
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Time for a new approach? What to expect from the 7th Strategic Energy Plan
The upcoming 7th Strategic Energy Plan is an opportunity to build on its two last iterations, which acknowledged the need to reduce coal’s role, ultimately phasing it out to meet Japan’s international commitments. Doing so will strengthen Japan’s energy security by reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports; ensure Japan can convince investors there will be enough clean energy to power future economic activities; and mitigate climate risks.
Japan can do much more to advance the energy transition with already existing renewable energy technologies. It can also benefit from the transition by shifting its efforts into commercialising emerging clean solutions with great market potential. Japanese companies are already taking action to compete for a leading role globally in floating offshore wind. Some of the leaders in next-generation perovskite solar cells are also found in Japan.
Directing Japan’s resources to these and other renewable energy solutions, while supporting the region’s clean transitions via the Asia Zero Emission Community initiative, could make Japan a truly formidable player in the race to clean energy.
Political leadership will be needed from the upcoming Prime Minister to get Japan Inc. to go all in into this race.
