European ministers and leaders meet through October as the EU heads into a winter of high energy prices and tight gas supplies, with pressure mounting to act on China and an intensifying El Niño darkening the global outlook. With COP31 less than a month away, the meetings will also shape the position the EU takes to Antalya.
- These pressures are fuelling a broader debate about Europe’s security, with implications for concrete decisions on investment, competitiveness and the clean transition. A central political task for the European Council (15-16 October) will be to break the stalemate over the EU’s next long-term budget, the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).
- These meetings will also shape how the EU engages with the world. Bilaterally, as it seeks to rebalance trade with China without cutting off the clean technologies it needs; regionally, with accession countries; multilaterally at COP31, where it must pair ambition with credible offers on climate finance.
Story
Europe enters a critical autumn exposed on several fronts at once. Gas storage began the refill season at record lows, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and the EU faces another winter of high energy prices driven by volatile fossil fuels. A widening trade deficit with China is fuelling calls for a tougher response, while a potentially record-breaking El Niño threatens harvests and food supplies far beyond Europe’s borders.
The choices ministers and leaders make on decarbonisation, the energy transition, the EU’s future financial resources, and its foreign policy will shape not only Europe’s ability to steer its own economic future, but also its reach and influence in the world.
Energy is the most immediate test. With storage tight and demand highly sensitive to a cold snap, governments are under pressure to shield households and industry from another winter of high bills. How they do so matters. It will be important that targeted, temporary support to businesses and consumers help lower the price of electricity and incentivise the adoption of electrified technologies to help strengthen resilience over the long-term. The ongoing period of very high energy prices once again highlights that accelerating the deployment of renewables, strengthening electricity infrastructure, and scaling clean flexibility are essential to deliver lasting resilience, affordability and independence.
High prices are also re-opening divisions between member states. As at earlier summits this year, some governments are pushing to weaken the ETS in response to energy costs, while others defend it as the backbone of Europe’s strategy to cut fossil fuel dependence. With Environment Ministers opening the debate on the ETS review the same week, the way Leaders frame the discussion will signal whether the carbon market is strengthened as a driver of industrial renewal, or risks dilution as a quick fix.
On China, the mood has hardened. France and Germany are pushing for a faster trade defence tool to respond to market distortions, and Beijing has warned it will retaliate. Leaders face a balancing act: protecting European industry and reducing strategic dependencies, while keeping access to the clean technologies and materials the transition depends on. How the EU manages that tension will shape its industrial base, pace, and cost of its transition.
Beyond Europe, El Niño is expected to push tens of millions more people into acute hunger and add strain to food and commodity markets. This is the backdrop to COP31, where the EU will need to show that climate cooperation brings tangible benefits: less exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets, stronger resilience and real support for the most vulnerable. Its COP31 position will need to pair a forward-leaning push on electrification and the transition away from fossil fuels with credible steps on climate finance, including the goal to triple adaptation finance by 2035.
Taken together, October will show whether the EU treats climate as a separate track, or as a central part of its answer to energy insecurity, economic pressure and a more volatile world.
Further detail on key questions
Decisions taken this autumn will shape Europe’s future
The EU is entering a critical period in which choices made on its domestic decarbonisation policies, energy system transition, and future financial resources will together shape not only Europe’s ability to steer its own economic future, but also to increase its international reach and influence. As EU Leaders and Ministers convene to confront persistent geopolitical instability and yet another winter of high energy prices driven by volatile fossil fuels, a key question will be whether the climate agenda is treated on a separate track or finally leveraged to address Europe’s underlying vulnerabilities. Taken together, this October’s decisions will show whether the EU can reconcile its domestic and international tracks and make the clean transition a central organising principle in its wider political agenda.
Can the EU budget finance Europe’s strategic pathway forward?
As the EU takes on a growing set of priorities – from defence and security to existing ones such as competitiveness, cohesion, agriculture, and enlargement – negotiations over the size of the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework and how to finance it will determine whether there is enough public investment capacity to deliver on them. Following a summer of position papers, the Irish Presidency of the Council and President Antonio Costa will attempt to square the circle of funding new priorities, maintaining long-standing support to territorial convergence and farmers, and limiting contributions from constrained national budgets. In their October summit, Leaders have an opportunity to recognize that the clean transition is a critical part of this equation, rather than a competing demand. Discussion of high energy prices is once again expected to make tensions resurface between countries willing to weaken the EU’s Emissions Trading System and those defending it as a core strategy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
Europe’s energy choices will define its security and independence
When considering targeted and short-term supports to help businesses and consumers during a winter of high energy prices, it will be important that these measures help to lower the price of electricity and incentivise the adoption of electrified technologies to help strengthen resilience over the long-term. The ongoing period of very high energy prices once again highlights that accelerating the deployment of renewables, strengthening electricity infrastructure, and scaling clean flexibility are essential to deliver lasting resilience, affordability and independence.
Growing pressure to rebalance economic relations with China
EU leaders will discuss the bloc’s economic relationship with China amid growing concerns over trade imbalances, industrial overcapacity and strategic dependencies. A new Franco-German proposal recently called for stronger EU trade defence instruments, including measures to respond more quickly to systemic market distortions and reduce supply-chain vulnerabilities. The European Council will be an important test of whether member states can agree on a more assertive and coordinated approach to China, while balancing the need to protect European industry with continued economic engagement and access to clean technologies essential for the energy transition.
Europe’s COP ambition faces a complex geopolitical setting
COP31 kicks off in Antalya in under a month. Its success will be defined by its ability to accelerate implementation and safeguard multilateralism in a time of geopolitical fragmentation. To do this, it must show that the climate regime is tangibly helping to address 1.5°C overshoot, reduce exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets, strengthen energy and economic security, and deliver economic opportunities, while supporting developing countries to implement their climate plans and ensuring a just and orderly transition. The EU in its COP31 Conclusions will need to balance a more assertive and forward-leaning posture to advance mitigation by accelerating electrification rollout and transitioning away from fossil fuels, with building diplomatic capital through credible steps to deliver on its climate finance commitments, including the goal to triple adaptation finance by 2035 as agreed in Belem. Ministers are also expected to formulate expectations for the second Global Stocktake in 2028, emphasize the importance of science, and highlight the breadth of its bilateral and plurilateral initiatives as part of its diplomatic offer.
Prioritising climate and energy transition in its foreign policy can strengthen the EU’s global influence
The EU has recognised that a more strategic approach to climate foreign policy is required, most recently in April 2026. However, lacking systems consideration of climate change impacts and the clean transition in its foreign policy agenda, risks becoming a strategic liability and shrinks the EU’s space for manoeuvre. To ensure a holistic approach to secure and advance the EU’s security and influence in the world, foreign ministers can more systematically integrate climate and energy transition in their discussions.
Quotes
About the European Council on 15-16 October, Manon Dufour , Executive Director of E3G’s Brussels office, said:
“Energy shocks, trade tensions with China and an intensifying El Niño are not separate crises. They are all signs of a world where Europe’s security depends on how quickly and how united it can act. What leaders decide this week on energy, the budget and China will shape not only Europe’s resilience this winter, but the credibility it carries into COP31 and its partnerships around the world. Climate is not a side track to that agenda; it is integral to every part of it”.
About industrial policy and the EU ETS, Domien Vangenechten, Programme Lead, EU Industry, said:
“Europe’s competitiveness debate should be about where the next generation of industry gets built. The choice is between investing in European innovation and clean industrial renewal, or becoming increasingly dependent on others to supply the technologies and materials of the future. As environment ministers discuss the ETS review and EU leaders debate Europe’s economic independence, the priority should be how to make the carbon market work harder for industrial transformation, rather than undermine its foundations in pursuit of quick fixes that fail to address Europe’s structural economic weaknesses.”
About the Foreign Affairs Council, Tefta Kelmendi, Programme Lead, Foreign Policy and Climate Cooperation
“It is long overdue for climate to move higher on EU’s foreign policy priorities, but disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the concentration and risk of weaponisation of clean technology and critical mineral supply chains, as well as intensifying climate impacts with broader security repercussions all point to the need for a much more integrated foreign and security policy strategy on climate that incorporates industry, trade, energy.”
About the ENVI Council EU COP31 conclusions, Cosima Cassel, Programme Lead, Climate Diplomacy and Multilateral Venues
“With the prospect of 1.5°C overshoot, a potential record-breaking El Niño and continued disruption to critical global trade routes, the EU’s priorities for COP31 must combine strategic assertiveness in accelerating clean electrification and the transition away from fossil fuels with diplomatic leadership on issues such as access to climate finance. By demonstrating the value of its diplomatic offer, the EU can champion a vision of climate action and resilience as drivers of energy security, economic competitiveness and development. This is how international cooperation can deliver faster implementation and tangible benefits for the communities most at risk.”
Available for comment
Manon Dufour, Executive Director, E3G Brussels, EN/FR manon.dufour@e3g.org
Luke O’ Callaghan-White – E3G Programme Lead (EN) – Energy prices, security, transition, Luke.ocallaghanwhite@e3g.org
Michael Forte – E3G Senior Policy Advisor (EN, FR) – EU politics, MFF, michael.forte@e3g.org
Domien Vangenechten, Programme Lead EU Industry, EN/NL– Industry decarbonisation, competitiveness, industrial policy, domien.vangenechten@e3g.org
Tefta Kelmendi, Programme Lead Foreign Policy and Climate Cooperation, EN/FR tefta.kelmendi@e3g.org
Cosima Cassel, Programme Lead Multilateral Venues, EN/ES/DE, cosima.cassel@e3g.org
Anton Jaekel, Policy Advisor, EU and German Climate Diplomacy and Foreign Policy, EN/DE – EU at CO31, anton.jaekel@e3g.org
Notes: October meetings
- Environment Council, 12 October. Environment Ministers are expected to agree the EU’s negotiating position for COP31 and hold a first policy debate on the review of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).
- Foreign Affairs Council, 12 October. Foreign Ministers meet the same day against a backdrop of disrupted energy trade routes, conflict in the Middle East and growing climate-driven risks to food security.
- European Council, 15-16 October. According to the annotated draft agenda, Leaders will discuss competitiveness (including the “One Europe, One Market” roadmap and global macroeconomic imbalances), Ukraine, the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework on the basis of an updated negotiating box from the Irish Presidency, the Middle East, European defence and security, migration, and enlargement and reforms. High energy prices are set to hang over the summit as winter approaches. The General Affairs Council prepares the summit on 13 October.
- Energy Ministers, 29 October. Energy Ministers meet with gas storage tight going into winter, and affordability and security of supply at the top of the agenda.
- Also this month, an EU-Gulf Cooperation Council summit takes place in Riyadh on 24 October. The EU-Canada summit takes place in Montreal on 29-30 October. Beyond, COP31 takes place in Antalya, Türkiye, from 9 to 20 November 2026.
