EU environment ministers met in Brussels for a hard-fought deal on the 2040 climate target and EU NDC, following political guidance from the European Council last month and with COP30 fast approaching.
- Following negotiations through the night, the Danish Presidency was successful in securing broad support behind the headline target of 90% emissions reduction by 2040 by offering additional flexibilities to address concerns over competitiveness, energy prices and national circumstances. This includes an increased contribution of high-quality international credits up to 5% from 2036, with a pilot period starting from 2031.
- The NDC’s range of 66.25-72.5 % compared to 1990 by 2035 lacks decisiveness. It does not do justice to the broad agreement on the EU’s domestic climate trajectory which points to a decisive path towards decarbonisation. Implementation must be geared toward reaching the upper bound of the range.
Story
EU environment ministers met in Brussels for a decisive round of negotiations on the EU’s next climate milestones, just days before the start of COP30. Reaching an agreement was essential to prove the EU’s ability to maintain unity and avoid going to COP empty-handed.
After long hours of negotiations, the Danish Presidency succeeded in building a broad political majority behind a –90% by 2040 goal. Yet, overcoming the political resistance of some Member States had a price that raises concerns.
While a ranged NDC, reflecting the statement of intent of 66.25-72.5% by 2035, lacks decisiveness, its unanimous adoption, together with the -90% by 2040 goal, allows the EU to have a stronger hand in shaping a COP30 outcome which covers an entire package across finance, adaptation, mitigation, nature, and governance reform.
Now, the political debate over the EU 2040 climate target moves to the European Parliament, which is preparing to finalise its own position. MEPs paused work pending today’s outcome, but the Environment (ENVI) Committee could vote as early as next week.
Once both institutions adopt their positions, inter-institutional negotiations (“trialogue”) will begin. In parallel, the Commission will start preparing the revision of the underpinning sectoral policies to deliver the newly adopted 2040 target, scheduled for Q3/Q4 next year.
Quotes
Manon Dufour, Executive Director, E3G Brussels, said:
“Today’s decision confirms the EU’s path to competitiveness and sovereignty through decarbonisation. It also shows how urgent it is to give industry and investors the policies that cut energy costs, unlock finance, build markets and create good jobs in clean industries for Europe to deliver on these objectives. It sends a strong signal before a decisive COP — one that will assess how far we’ve come, and how much remains to be done.”
Elisa Giannelli, Programme Lead – EU Politics at E3G, said:
“Reaching an agreement on the 90% 2040 climate target is a powerful signal that Europe’s transition to climate neutrality transcends political ideology. The flexibilities built into the final text are designed to help governments navigate uncertainty, but it would be a mistake to use them as shortcuts. The EU cannot afford to lose sight of the primary objective: reducing emissions cost-effectively and fairly, so the transition delivers real benefits for citizens and the economy.”
Kaysie Brown, Associate Director – Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, E3G Washington, said:
“The EU has taken a decisive step just in time to build momentum towards COP30. While the NDC lacks decisiveness, the agreement of a 90% headline target for 2040 sends an important signal at a pivotal moment for global diplomacy. It shows that Europe knows its long-term competitiveness and prosperity depend on fully seizing the opportunities of the energy transition. The task now is to turn this ambition into collective progress, working with partners from around the world to deliver concrete outcomes in Belém that make a real difference for people and the planet.”
Anton Jaekel, Policy Advisor – Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, E3G Berlin, said:
“After months of delay, the agreement on a 90% headline target for 2040 and its 2035 NDC are part of the EU’s offer to drive impact at COP30. At COP, the EU now needs to showcase the inevitability and speed of its clean energy transition and its commitment to multilateralism and working globally. Proactive and constructive engagement from the EU will be essential for a COP30 outcome that addresses the gaps in ambition and implementation across mitigation, financing, adaptation, and credibility.”
Available for comment
Manon Dufour (EN, FR), Executive Director, E3G Brussels m: +32 (0)4 77 76 78 01| e: manon.dufour@e3g.org
Elisa Giannelli (EN, IT, FR), Programme Lead, EU Politics and Governance m: +32 (0)4 94 58 48 29 | e: elisa.giannelli@e3g.org
Anton Jaekel (EN, DE), Policy Advisor, EU Climate Diplomacy, EU Foreign Policy. m: +49 (0) 160 2421044 | e: anton.jaekel@e3g.org |
Notes to Editors
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