- EU leaders are slated to meet on 18-19 June at a time when Europe is confronted with a convergence of pressures: from the ongoing war in Ukraine, to conflict in the Middle East and associated energy crisis, to the bloc’s tense relations with China. This context is ushering in a broader debate about Europe’s independence model, which will hold implications for more concrete decisions on investment, security, competitiveness and Europe’s clean transition model.
- While discussions on the next Europe budget – the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028-2034 – are unlikely to be made public at this time, the Cyprus Presidency will present the first set of figures for negotiation, allowing EU leaders to hold a substantive political exchange. Divisions have already emerged over the size of the budget and how to balance traditional spending areas such as agriculture and cohesion with rising demands for defence, competitiveness, strategic technologies and energy security, as well as the EU’s capacity to act more strategically on the global stage.
- Ukraine, migration and wider global instability will remain core agenda items, with leaders expected to review continued EU support for Kyiv, migration management ahead of the summer period, and the EU’s positioning amid broader international crises in the Middle East and beyond.
Story
On June 18-19, EU leaders will meet to address key geopolitical challenges and strategic priorities for the Union, including Europe’s crisis response, competitiveness and the next EU budget. The discussion comes at a moment of exceptional geopolitical uncertainty. Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to reshape Europe’s security environment, conflict in the Middle East threatens further disruption to global energy markets, and intensifying US-China competition is increasing pressure on the EU to strengthen its economic resilience and reduce strategic dependencies.
With the Cyprus Presidency of the Council of the EU expected to present draft budget figures ahead of the summit, leaders will have their first chance to engage in a meaningful debate over the Union’s future purse, although significant decisions are unlikely to emerge until later in the year.
The summit comes at a pivotal moment for the EU’s economic and political way forward. As Europe navigates yet another energy crisis, leaders will have the opportunity to discuss key tools at their disposal for achieving structural independence from volatile fossil fuels in a bid to secure the continent’s industrial base and protect citizens from future shocks. The demand is there:
Recent polling shows that a majority of Europeans back reducing fossil fuel imports to make Europe safer. At the same time, today, a diverse group of 21 organisations across finance, energy, consumers is calling on European leaders to make this the last fossil fuel crisis.
In light of, rising tensions with China around trade and industrial policy, leaders also have an opportunity to address risks from China’s overcapacity pressures and supply chain dominance, ensuring that the clean transition doesn’t create new strategic dependencies for the EU.
Though central elements of the discussion are likely not going to be made public, the outcome of this June European Council will be an important indication of how EU leaders intend to navigate overlapping challenges and whether they can build a shared agenda around energy independence, economic resilience and long-term prosperity.
Quotes
Manon Dufour, Executive Director, E3G Brussels, said:
“Moments of crisis can expose weakness, but they can also create purpose. The next great European project is energy independence – strengthening security, restoring competitiveness and delivering lasting prosperity.
Europe does not lack capital; it lacks mechanisms to turn European savings towards European priorities. The next MFF should be judged by a simple test: does it help Europe invest in its own security, competitiveness and future?”
Luke O Callaghan-White, Programme Lead, EU Energy Transition, said:
“A Europe that continues to rely on fossil fuels, continues to put our energy security at risk. Leaders are faced with a choice: continue to push short term fixes that will cost us billions, or finally prioritise investments in a future-proof and resilient energy system. Europeans have clearly recognized that less fossil fuels are the only path to security. Now is the moment for leaders to act.”
Domien Vangenechten, Programme Lead, EU Clean Economy, said:
“Fossil dependency, geopolitical shocks and China’s industrial might have exposed Europe’s vulnerabilities, but a transformed industrial base is the key to turning these pressures into long-term advantage. If leaders show real resolve on climate and industrial policy – through a bolstered budget that unleashes the necessary investments, stronger lead markets, and a robust ETS that delivers predictability – Europe can prove that sustained climate ambition backed by coherent industrial and trade policy – is the best long-term strategy against global uncertainty.”
Tefta Kelmendi, Programme Lead, Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, E3G, said:
“Dealing with China’s economic pressure has become more urgent for the EU as geopolitical shocks multiply. Defending European industries and securing supply chains is crucial not just for the EU’s economic security, but also for its broader geopolitical interests, including the EU’s ability to shape the conditions of its own clean transition and that of its partners. The latest tensions with China around the EU Industrial Accelerator Act and possible additional trade defence measures show that the EU is finally using its tools more strategically to protect its interests and to avoid deepening dependencies, including on clean energy and tech supply chains that are crucial for the energy transition.”
Available for comment
Manon Dufour – Executive Director, E3G Brussels (EN, FR)– EU politics
manon.dufour@e3g.org | + 32 (0)4 77 76 78 01
Domien Vangenechten – E3G Programme Lead (EN, NL) – Industry decarbonisation, competitiveness, industrial policy
Domien.vangenechten@e3g.org | +32 (0) 47 487 1827
Luke O’ Callaghan-White – E3G Programme Lead (EN) – Energy and housing
Luke.ocallaghanwhite@e3g.org | +32 (0) 49 52 94 331
Sandra Tzvetkova – E3G Senior Policy Advisor (EN) – EU politics, MFF
sandra.tzvetkova@e3g.org | +32 (0) 48 40 36 521
Michael Forte – E3G Senior Policy Advisor (EN, FR) – EU politics, MFF
michael.forte@e3g.org | +32 (0) 499 67 99 81
Relevant links:
Cross-sector coalition calls on European Council to end fossil fuel dependence – https://www.e3g.org/news/cross-sector-coalition-calls-on-european-council-to-end-fossil-fuel-dependence/ – In response to yet another energy crisis, broad coalition of organisations is calling on European leaders to make this Europe’s final fossil fuel crisis. The open letter, addressed to Members of the European Council ahead of the summit on 18-19 June, urges EU leaders to move beyond emergency responses and commit to a long-term strategy to end Europe’s structural dependence on fossil fuels.
Notes to Editors
E3G is an independent climate change think tank with a global outlook. We work on the frontier of the climate landscape, tackling the barriers and advancing the solutions to a safe climate. Our goal is to translate climate politics, economics and policies into action. About – E3G
For further enquiries, email press@e3g.org or phone +44 (0)7783 787 863.
