On September 18, Environment Ministers met in Brussels to advance negotiations on defining the European Union (EU)’s pathway to climate neutrality by 2050. Originally scheduled as a Council meeting to adopt formal positions on the 2035 and 2040 climate targets, resistance from several Member States has made it uncertain whether the EU can secure the necessary ambition ahead of COP30.
- Delays in adopting the 2040 climate target have created uncertainty around both the timing and the level of ambition the EU can commit to in its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). A UN Secretary General special leaders’ event alongside next week’s opening of the UN General Assembly has emerged as a major moment for countries to present their 2035 NDCs
- In an effort to avoid arriving at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) empty-handed, the Danish Presidency of the Council of the EU will seek to broker an agreement among Member States on a ‘statement of intent’. This would include a proposed range of 66.3% to 72.5% for EU emissions cuts by 2035 and leave the door open to endorsing a science-based 90% emissions reduction target by 2040 and an aligned 2035 interim goal of 72.5%.
Story
With just a week to go before the UN Secretary General “Climate Leaders’ summit” and the deadline for the UN NDC synthesis report ahead of COP30, EU Environment Ministers meet on September 18. They have a shrinking window to turn the historic EU’s climate leadership into a source of economic and geopolitical advantage, shaping global standards and gaining first-mover advantage as a reliable and evidence-based global actor.
Despite strong leadership from the Danish Presidency, which is steering the discussions, an agreement on the science-based 90% cut by 2040 is now unlikely before Heads of States and Governments meet this October 23–24.
In July 2025, the European Commission released its long-awaited legislative proposal to cut emissions by 90% by 2040, as requested by the European Climate Law. Despite already being behind schedule on the adoption of the interim target, Member States are struggling to find common ground, putting at risk the EU’s overall ambition. Without a formal agreement on the 90% by 2040, the 2035 target may be derived from a weaker trajectory, signalling a slowing down in the EU’s clean economy trajectory.
The stakes are high for the EU.
- At home, staying the course on the clean economy with a strong 2040 target is essential to provide certainty for investors, bolster energy security, and maintain economic competitiveness.
- Internationally, steady climate action is a strategic imperative to protect Europe’s security long-term.
But the EU’s delayed decisions and perceived hesitation risk eroding the case for domestic climate action as a strategic choice; as an economic opportunity and as part of the continent’s security; and its contribution to international climate cooperation as a key fixture of geopolitical stability.
With COP30 seen as a crucial test of international climate cooperation, failure to deliver a science-based pledge that signals responsibility internally as well as externally could further undermine trust, especially among emerging economies calling for reform.
Quotes
Manon Dufour, Executive Director, E3G Brussels, said:
“The EU’s delayed decision on its trajectory to climate neutrality is only hurting its own domestic industry and global standing. The EU has maintained its emissions reduction trajectory, increased climate finance, and expanded its clean energy base in the face of pandemics, energy shocks, and political volatility. It should be shouting from the rooftops that climate action is THE strategic choice for security, economic growth, and geopolitical stability.”
Elisa Giannelli, Programme Lead, E3G Brussels, said:
“Wherever the next steps of the 2040 climate target negotiation take us, one thing is clear: the 2040 target and its NDC should remain two sides of the same coin. The EU’s ability to shape global standards and gain first-mover advantage hang in the balance. Continued uncertainty would only erode the clarity and certainty that citizens, businesses and investors need.
A clear commitment to ambitious, science-based targets for 2035 and 2040 is the most strategic decision that EU leaders can take now.”
Steffen Menzel, Programme Lead, E3G Berlin, said:
“The repeated delays and lack of clarity around the EU’s 2035 NDC are a profound disappointment. Europe has long positioned itself as a standard-bearer for the rationale for the clean transition, and is now failing its citizen and industry as well as international partners alike at a critical moment. As major emitter the EU must honour their obligations under the Paris Agreement. The recent Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice confirms that climate ambition is not optional. It is also the smart and responsible path to take in the EU’s own economic and security self interest.”
Marc Weissgerber, Executive Director, E3G Berlin, said:
“At this critical diplomatic juncture for the EU, Germany must demonstrate leadership. A proactive role is also indispensable for meeting Germany’s own national climate objectives, to uphold political credibility and secure the international competitiveness of the European and German economy.”
“Deutschland muss in diesem entscheidenden diplomatischen Moment Führungsstärke zeigen. Eine aktive Rolle ist zugleich zentral für das Erreichen der eigenen Klimaziele, für die politische Glaubwürdigkeit, und für die internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der deutschen und europäischen Wirtschaft.”
– ENDS –
Available for comment
Elisa Giannelli – E3G Programme Lead (EN, IT, FR) – EU politics, 2040 target Elisa.Giannelli@e3g.org | + 32 (0) 494 58 48 29
Steffen Menzel – E3G Programme Lead (EN, DE) – NDCs, EU foreign policy Steffen.menzel@e3g.org | +49 (0) 151 5120 1182
Manon Dufour – E3G Executive Director, Brussels (EN, FR) – EU politics Manon.dufour@e3g.org | +32 (0) 477 76 78 01
Marc Weissgerber – E3G Executive Director, Berlin (EN, DE) – Finance, Energy, Diplomacy marc.weissgerber@e3g.org | +49 (0) 175 1974404
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