After much anticipation, on 24 September Chinese President Xi Jinping announced at the UN Secretary General’s Climate Summit the country’s new nationally determined contribution (NDC) and 2035 climate target. The Summit was intended as a platform for countries to demonstrate ambition in the third round of NDCs, ahead of the 30 September deadline for the synthesis report and the upcoming COP30 in Belém this November.
The announcement of a full NDC is a positive signal from China, but the level of ambition announced falls short of the country’s economic potential and international expectations.
Key insights
Beijing pledged to cut net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by just 7–10% by 2035 from peak levels, adding it would “strive to do better.”
While this marks the country’s first-ever absolute cap on total emissions, it amounts to only a fraction of the 30% cut considered necessary to align with a 2°C pathway under the Paris Agreement. The reference to “net emissions” also leaves room for China to rely on carbon sinks or removals to pad its reductions.
The underwhelming range reflected Beijing’s cautious approach to climate action following years of a mixed decarbonisation record.
On one hand, China has sustained years of record-breaking renewables deployment and established itself as the world’s cleantech manufacturing hub. On the other hand, China has consistently backslid on most of its coal consumption and supply pledges, prioritising Covid-disrupted economic recovery and energy security needs over coal control.
Geopolitics further constrained ambition:
Worsening tensions with the West and the US retreat from climate leadership mark a sharp departure from the joint US–China diplomacy that delivered the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015. The EU’s own deferral of its NDC likely reinforced Beijing’s reluctance to commit more ambitious goals.
Beyond the headline emissions target, Xi also announced sectoral 2035 pledges.
These include to raise the share of non-fossil fuels to 30% of primary energy consumption, Increase solar and wind capacity to over six times the 2020 level (around 3,200 GW), and strive to achieve over 3,600 GW, make new energy vehicles (NEVs) the “mainstream” in new car sales, expand the national emissions trading scheme (ETS) to major high-emitting industries, and “basically” establish a climate-adapted society.
- In a country where energy consumption accounts for over 90% of total emissions, these energy pledges carry particular significance. Yet the promise to lift non-fossil energy to 30% by 2035 is timid given the country’s rapid clean energy transition. By 2024, non-fossil sources had already reached 19.8%, well on track to surpass the official 2025 goal of 20% and the 2030 goal of 25%
- Continued rollout of renewable technologies, energy storage, virtual power plants, distributed resources, and improved grid integration should accelerate the renewables intake, leaving a higher target within reach. A brighter spot came in the updated 3,600 GW wind and solar capacity goal, tripling its previous 1,200 GW by 2030 target that China already surpassed last year. Continued bullish policy signals on renewables in the future could help inject more confidence into its beleaguered cleantech manufacturing sector and help absorb overcapacity.
- Many of the new pledges remain vague if not weak. China’s vow to make NEVs the “mainstream” in new car sales offered no binding percentage cap on internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs)— despite NEVs already making a substantial 40.9% share in new sales in 2024.
- Likewise, the promise to expand the national ETS without a concrete timeline or pledge to cover all eight planned sectors, risks undermining the credibility of a system whose expansion has been long overdue. These details should be specified in future policies.
Equally striking are the omissions.
- The NDC does not specify a peak year or cap for emissions, potentially granting local authorities a free pass to increase emissions until 2030, a trend already evident.
- Nor does the NDC revisit earlier commitments on carbon and energy intensity, coal consumption, or limits on new coal-fired power plants—some of China’s most important pledges where progress has been faltering.
- As a result, the NDC continues to issue a lenient pass to energy-intensive industries that rely on coal-fired power and other high-emitting industries.
- As the country continues its quest for power-hungry technology industries, it risks incentivising and locking in could-be-built coal-fired power infrastructure that could put upward pressure on the emissions curve.
This NDC should only serve as a bottom line for China to deliver its climate action urgently needed.
As China pledged to “strive to do more,” there are opportunities for China to make much more ambitious and concrete sectoral targets in its upcoming Five-year Plan in 2026 to steer its energy transition, support domestic cleantech development, and set an urgent pre-peaking emission control plan to position it on the right path for carbon neutrality.
Future pledges should help China lead its energy transition and shoulder its international responsibilities, instead of holding it up from full potential.
