- Outside of the negotiations, there was momentum on the implementation front, with the High-Level Climate Champions and their team organizing in-depth sessions to advance progress on the full range of Action Agenda activation plans, and the incoming Turkish COP31 presidency unveiling an initiative to increase electricity’s share of the global energy economy to 35% by 2035.
- The Bonn sessions saw progress on outlining options for operationalizing the Just Transition Belém to Antalya Mechanism (BAM) — which was one of the major outcomes of COP30 — but much work remains to narrow the differences that remain between countries, especially on the BAM’s role in mobilizing finance for just transitions in developing countries.
- But there was little progress on other fronts, including extending the mandate of the Mitigation Work Programme, sharp disagreements on the scope and outcomes of the Climate Finance Work Programme mandated at COP30 in Belém, and little clarity on how developed countries will meet their pledge to triple adaptation finance for developing countries by 2035.
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Despite initially a smoother opening than last year with no agenda fights, Bonn has fallen under the radar this year with lower numbers of journalists present, and a perceived reduction in space for civil society to intervene and report on the negotiations. Some delegations struggled to be represented in full force due to the mounting energy security crisis leading to restrictions in travel for some. Widespread visa delays also have limited participation, disproportionately hitting representation from global south CSOs.
New vision from the Presidency
But discussions have seen some progress and lots of activity, with Bonn reinforcing that the climate regime is transitioning to an era of implementation. Most visibly, the incoming Turkish COP31 Presidency launched its vision for the Action Agenda, centred on a new target of achieving a 35% share of final energy consumption to be provided by electricity by 2035 (though ’the devil is in the detail’ in terms of how this translates to delivery on the ground for different sectors and regions). The COP31 Presidency highlighted its intention to take forward the Action Agenda structure introduced by the COP30 Presidency which importantly provides a real-world mechanism and a shared direction of travel for how to implement the results of the first Global Stocktake.
Australia, the COP31 Presidency of Negotiations was in contrast relatively under the radar. A letter from Australia, outlining its vision and negotiations priorities ahead of a meeting of Heads of Delegation to be held in late July in Baku, would help focus minds and build a path forward in the final months before Antalya.
Just Transition and Mitigation:
Agreement was reached on a draft negotiating text for the Just Transition Work Programme that contains most of the elements needed to agree on the Belém to Antalya Mechanism (BAM) at COP31, though more is needed on governance and implementation support. But serious disagreements remain on the vision and scope for the BAM, and the incoming Australian Presidency of Negotiations must vigorously engage with negotiators and ministers between now and COP31 to advance convergence and alignment so that an ambitious agreement can be reached in Antalya.
Progress on the Mitigation Work Programme negotiations has been challenged by divergence between those developed and developing countries wanting to see a more active and effective space to advance mitigation ambition across multiple sectors, and the Arab Group and Like-Minded Developing Countries who advance a more restricted vision of what that space should do. It appears the Bonn outcome will be a mostly procedural one, though with a workshop to be held just before COP31 to continue the discussions. Given how little progress was made over the last two weeks, however, it’s unclear how a one- or two-day workshop will close the sharp differences on display here in Bonn, so that a decision on extension of the MWP’s mandate can be reached in Antalya.
Adaptation:
Adaptation remains one of the most urgent priorities for developing countries and vulnerable communities, which are already experiencing the devastating impacts of climate change. This session demonstrated both the growing importance of adaptation within the climate regime and the significant political challenges that remain in translating commitments into actual financial flows and implementation on the ground. Discussions across the Global Goal on Adaptation, Adaptation Communications, and the Nairobi Work Programme highlighted the continued demand for stronger support, clearer reporting, and accelerated action. Yet despite the urgency of the challenge, progress in the negotiations has been painfully slow. Eventually, Nairobi Work Programme found agreement around draft conclusions, but the Adaptation Communications and Adaptation Fund negotiations reached an impasse, and only procedural conclusions will be forwarded to COP31. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) remains an open item and negotiators await text at the time of writing before the plenary is concluded.
The immediate priority is for countries to bridge political differences and agree on a way forward for the GGA before the closing plenary. The Task Force under the Belém–Addis Vision must be established and allowed to begin its work if the process is to remain on track for completion at COP32. Time is running short. Countries need to move beyond procedural debates and begin implementing the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience while establishing the mechanisms needed to track progress towards its targets.
On adaptation finance, the situation remains deeply concerning. Recent months have seen continued cuts in official development assistance at a time when adaptation needs are rising rapidly. If developed countries are not yet in a position to provide clear signals on scaling the quantity of adaptation finance, they should demonstrate progress in other critical areas of the New Collective Quantified Goal, particularly improving access to finance and enhancing its quality. In this regard, Australia’s proposal to launch a declaration on access to climate finance at COP31 is a positive signal. However, such an initiative must be actionable, time-bound, and capable of delivering tangible improvements if it is to help rebuild confidence and trust that the adaptation finance gap will be addressed.
Trade and Climate:
Trade is a cornerstone issue now for UNFCCC climate negotiations and Bonn saw the first of three trade dialogues mandated in the COP30 Mutirão decision, as well as intensive negotiations in the Response Measures Working Group. This is a historic moment for Bonn in hosting the first trade and climate dialogue and the UNFCCC has shown it is keen to engage real world issues alongside the textual negotiations, allowing the space for parties to discuss ways in which trade policies can enable greater climate ambition despite constrained fiscal environments, by catalysing investment and providing security and partner benefits to countries. Positive outcomes include identifying more technical and practical areas of progress around, for example, greater coordination on carbon accounting and carbon pricing, and at the same time discussing concerns around cross border impacts of the trade-related climate measures.
There were the debates expected around Unilateral Trade Measures, but Parties did engage constructively, and the presence of the WTO and other international organizations was seen as useful in finding solutions to problems while not resolving divergent positions between developed and developing countries. Going forward, the chairs will need to delineate clearly how the conversation in this space differs from and builds upon trade and climate discussions occurring inside and outside the UNFCCC, including the IFCCT, Response Measures negotiations, and the WTO.
The European Union’s role:
There is a sense that Europe is struggling to find a new role in these discussions and on the way to COP. The EU’s positioning at the last COP was seen to be not optimal and this year although it is coordinating better between Member States, it needs new alliances at COP and the pre-COP. The EU alone cannot lead and must form new coalitions, also finding clarity over the EU’s role with China. The EU is the biggest contributor to climate finance, but is seeking other countries to come in, and as compensation for its leadership role, the EU wants to see more progress on mitigation. This gives it a position of strength today, but in reality, the amount of climate finance provided to developing countries is going down not up in the EU, with fiscal space limited at both EU and Member State level. This trajectory will likely hit COP31, and the EU’s declining climate finance and ODA commitments are not compatible with stated targets. The latest reported figures of global climate finance of over 100bn USD, which reaches the old NCQG target, still include the US contribution, which will need to be filled as the US drops out, so the EU’s position of strength will further drop back. At the same time a credible pathway is needed for climate finance, and a systematic plan to bring in private sector finance – set to be half of the overall target 1.3tn USD by 2035. There are big dynamics in EU Member States politically and this means too that being a climate negotiator lead country is likely to lose credibility domestically, as populist movements further rise.
Science under threat:
The talks have been fractious, with an extraordinary press briefing from a group of both developed and developing country negotiators laying out their concerns about science language being watered down and pushback on the role of the IPCC and how it slots into the second Global Stocktake. With science underpinning the entire multilateral climate treaty process, this is indeed of concern.
What comes next?
Looking forward, we need to see Türkiye and Australia as joint COP31 Presidency pick up the pace, particularly on how to resolve differences on adaptation, finance, and mitigation issues so as to achieve a balanced and ambitious package at COP31. We also need them to work with the Ethiopian COP32 presidency to lay out their vision and path forward towards the next Global Stocktake at COP33. The COP31 presidency will have an opportunity to generate forward progress on these issues when they meet with Heads of Delegation at their late July retreat in Azerbaijan. There will be discussions on electrification and the transition away from fossil fuels at next week’s London Climate Action Week, where five COP presidencies will be present, as well as the opening of the UN General Assembly and New York Climate Week in September.
The closing plenary concludes later today and E3G will further provide analysis of outcomes and next steps on the road to COP31 and beyond.
Quotes
Kaysie Brown, Associate Director, Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, E3G, said:
“Bonn reinforced that the climate regime is transitioning to an era of implementation. In this context, COP31 must deliver – accelerating clean electrification, continuing to elevate adaptation and resilience especially in this Super El Niño year, showing that financing and investment is flowing, and ensuring Pacific priorities, vulnerable countries and science remain at the centre of focus. Türkiye is building momentum around the Action Agenda, now Australia must provide a clear political vision and direction on negotiations. Close coordination through the Troika with Brazil, Ethiopia and Pacific partners will be critical to deliver on these priorities in Antalya and ensure continuity and impact beyond COP31 to GST2 in 2028.”
Cosima Cassel, Programme Lead, Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, E3G, said:
“To avoid the worst impacts of climate change while simultaneously improving energy security and resilience, the climate regime must shift its focus from agreeing commitments to delivering them. It is encouraging to see Türkiye elevate the Action Agenda and the clean energy transition in Bonn. However, targets alone will not deliver change without a clear plan to unlock investment and deployment. Turkiye’s focus must now be working through the Action Agenda to create the policy, finance and market conditions needed to rapidly transition to clean electricity. This must be rooted in a just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels, while ensuring countries can access reliable, affordable, renewable energy.”
Alden Meyer, E3G Senior Associate, Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, said:
“As people across the world suffer the twin crises of mounting climate impacts as well as the sharply higher energy and food prices resulting from the war in the Persian Gulf, there was no sense of urgency at the Bonn climate talks. There was progress on the Action Agenda which engages states, cities, businesses, investors, and others on strategies to raise climate ambition, but limited progress in most of the negotiating rooms. It is now down to the Australian and Turkish COP31 presidency to engage intensively with negotiators and ministers between Bonn and Antalya to achieve the ambitious package of outcomes the world needs from COP31.”
Ana Mulio Alvarez, Policy Advisor, Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, E3G, said:
“The world cannot afford further delays on adaptation. Countries must move beyond procedural debates and urgently operationalize the Global Goal on Adaptation so that the Belém–Addis Vision can enable countries to measure the progress of their adaptation efforts. At the same time, champion countries must show how they will meet their commitment to scale and enhance access and quality of adaptation finance, because vulnerable communities cannot adapt on promises alone.”
Jordan Dilworth, Policy Advisor, Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, E3G, said:
“The historic first trade and climate dialogue in Bonn reflects the UNFCCC responding to broader geopolitical dynamics outside the climate talks. While strongly held divergent positions were expressed, Parties avoided trading blows and the dialogue was constructive by identifying some areas for cooperation. The chairs now have the difficult task of capturing the dialogue and shaping the agenda for the next sessions. Unilateral trade measures did crop up in other negotiations, and failure to address expressed concerns could result in disruption to other negotiation spaces in COP31 and beyond.”
Marc Weissgerber, Executive Director Germany and CEE, E3G: said:
“The EU still struggles to find its new leadership role in the absence of the US. It cannot simply follow old pathways but needs to find allies, and a new position towards China in particular. We saw an EU which is better aligned than in the past but not there where it needs to be. The way forward for the EU on the way to COP31 needs to show leadership via alliance building, a new diplomatic strategy for the topics of mitigation and the Just Transition Mechanism. And foremost needs to deliver on their finance commitments, in particular on adaptation finance.”
