The Production Gap Report 2023

Coal steam power plant in Karlsruhe in Germany used for generation of electricity and district heating from hard coal
Coal steam power plant in Karlsruhe in Germany. Photo by Firn on Adobe Stock.

The 2023 edition of the Production Gap Report finds that governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030  than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C.

This comes despite 151 national governments having pledged to achieve net-zero emissions and the latest forecasts which suggest global coal, oil, and gas demand will peak this decade, even without new policies. When combined, government plans would lead to an increase in global coal production until 2030, and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050, creating an ever-widening fossil fuel production gap over time.  

The report’s main findings include:  

  • Given risks and uncertainties of carbon capture and storage and carbon dioxide removal, countries should aim for a near total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040, and a combined reduction in oil and gas production and use by three-quarters by 2050 from 2020 levels, at a minimum.
  • While 17 of the 20 countries featured have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions — and many have launched initiatives to cut emissions from fossil fuel production activities — none have committed to reduce coal, oil, and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
  • Governments with greater capacity to transition away from fossil fuels should aim for more ambitious reductions and help support the transition processes in countries with limited resources. 

The report is produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, E3G, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). More than 80 researchers contributed to the analysis and review, spanning numerous universities, think tanks, and other research organizations.

Register for the launch event on Wednesday, 8 November, 10–11:15 a.m. EST / 3–4:15 p.m. GMT / 4–5:15 p.m. CET here.

Read the report and key findings here.

Download the executive summary here.


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