Türkiye’s climate stance currently presents a fundamental contradiction: a high-profile pursuit of global leadership set against a domestic policy framework that lacks the necessary ambition. The country’s bid to host the COP31 next year and its growing need to align with the EU’s ongoing decarbonisation efforts (its main trade partner) will require Türkiye to adopt more serious climate policies.
Hosting COP brings higher expectations
As Türkiye continue to push to host COP31, it should consider that a COP host is expected to demonstrate the ambition it asks of others. To credibly assume a leadership position, Türkiye must accelerate its domestic energy transition and strengthen its climate commitments. Yet, Türkiye’s latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), recently announced by President Erdogan in New York, falls short of the ambition required. The NDC sets a 42% reduction by 2035 relative to a “business as usual” pathway. Yet because that baseline assumes emissions will grow at roughly twice the historical pace, the resulting emissions would still rise by 16% compared with 2023 levels. This stands in contrast to the EU’s target of reducing emissions by more than half from 1990 levels, highlighting the widening gap in climate ambition between the two economies.
Nearly half of Türkiye’s exports are bound for Europe, making alignment with EU trade policy a powerful driver for Türkiye’s climate action. The upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) initially spurred rapid progress from Türkiye’s ratification of the Paris Agreement to the development of carbon pricing plans. However, the momentum has slowed as confidence in strict EU enforcement wanes. Relying on weaker rules is a risky strategy; instead, cutting industrial emissions and expanding clean power would send stronger signals of competitiveness and stability, and help future-proof Türkiye’s economy.
Türkiye’s renewable energy targets also appear to be weakening. Just two years ago, Türkiye aimed for 120 GW of wind and solar by 2035, but current plans revert to the earlier 82 GW target. Meanwhile, around 3.2 GW of new coal remains in long-term planning, and there is still no commitment to “no new coal.” Recently announced coal subsidies pledge to buy power from domestic coal plants at fixed rates until 2030 and extend similar guarantees for any new coal plants through mid-2040s. These policies risk deepening coal lock-in and increasing, economic and transition risks. Persisting with new coal power and lacking a clear phase-out plan also undermines the credibility of Türkiye’s 2053 net-zero target.
Although renewables now account for more than half of Türkiye’s installed electricity capacity, long-term planning still relies on imported fuels. New LNG contracts extending into the 2040s and the Akkuyu nuclear project deepen dependence on fuel imports and could reduce system flexibility as the global energy system decarbonises.
From ambition gap to leadership opportunity
Türkiye’s domestic policies will shape its competitiveness and potential for economic growth but also determine its credibility as a leader at COP31. The choices made in the coming months will determine whether Türkiye can move from incremental progress to clearly measurable, economy-wide emissions reductions.
While current plans fall short of the ambition expected from a COP host, this does not close the door to leadership. By acting decisively now, Türkiye can turn its climate ambitions into real leadership. Here’s how:
- Strengthen climate governance and ambition: Türkiye’s new Climate Law provides a base for action but has drawn criticism from civil society for weak ambition and limited participation. As work advances on the green taxonomy and the planned Emissions Trading System (ETS), Türkiye should address these concerns and set a transparent, steadily tightening cap.
- Keep ambitious renewable energy targets: Reinstating the 120 GW wind and solar target by 2035, alongside faster permitting and timely grid upgrades, would send a clear signal that Türkiye is committed to the global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity and help to unlock investment. Pairing these steps with better planning for storage can harness Türkiye’s strong renewable potential and cut reliance on imported fuels.
- Clarify that coal doesn’t have a future: Making the current slowdown in new coal official with a firm “no new coal” pledge and a plan to retire older plants would cut long-term emissions and bring Türkiye closer to global climate trends. Support from international finance could help retrain workers, create new jobs and invest in regional development so coal communities are not left behind. Clearer direction on coal would also give investors confidence to shift funding towards renewables and new industries, helping build a stronger and more competitive economy.
The strategy Türkiye follows next month in Belém, and, if successful, over the next 12–18 months, will define how Türkiye is perceived as it seeks a central role at the COP. Türkiye should also signal its readiness to deliver beyond its current NDC, helping lead the way to fill the ambition gap to 1.5-2 °C – the challenge of this COP. By strengthening governance, restoring clean power ambition, clarifying the long-term role of coal and ensuring new energy investments support a net zero trajectory, Türkiye can present itself as a constructive, forward-looking and credible climate actor.
