At the G20 Leaders’ Summit this weekend, the South African presidency faces the challenge of steadying a fragile process. With climate unlikely to be a focus of the US G20 in 2026, the task in Johannesburg is to consolidate progress, anchor ambition, and protect what has been achieved through a difficult year.
As the first G20 summit in Africa, South Africa sought to highlight the continent’s priorities and contributions. Under the theme “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability”, Pretoria pushed for stronger action on debt relief, just energy transitions, and critical-mineral processing. However, its presidency has taken place against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical turbulence, trade disputes, and reduced engagement from members.
As multilateral cooperation becomes more fragile, the G20 itself is facing questions about its impact and relevance. The US has signaled it will not send representatives to the summit, and the leaders of Argentina, China, Mexico and Russia will not attend.
At the same time, the G20 remains central to any meaningful global response to the climate crisis as the main forum convening all major economies and 83% of global emissions. Amid serious challenges, maintaining purpose and coherence will depend on strategic patience, disciplined messaging, and alliances that extend across presidencies.
By grounding ambition in the G20 process, protecting areas of cooperation, and engaging seriously on shared priorities, the South African summit can still make progress on climate cooperation, even if major breakthroughs are unlikely.
1. Anchor ambition to safeguard credibility
G20 members, most of which remain committed to climate action, must send a clear signal that this is not the time to retreat. Setting a high bar now will make it harder for future presidencies to weaken ambition. Even if consensus on a Leaders’ Declaration proves elusive, a coalition of willing countries should still champion ambitious language on climate in a chair’s summary, in dedicated statements, and in leaders’ interventions.
Leaders should reaffirm existing G20 commitments, especially those under the Indian (2023) and Brazilian (2024) presidencies: to triple global renewable capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030, accelerate the just transition away from fossil fuels by mid-century, and phase down unabated coal power, among other important goals. They should also highlight what they are doing to support these targets both domestically and abroad.
Finally, they should build on the outcomes of COP30 in Belém, endorsing the Baku-to-Belém roadmap towards a $1.3 trillion climate finance goal, and carrying forward progress on mitigation, adaptation, finance, and nature. This includes sustaining momentum on fossil fuel phase-out, scaling clean energy deployment, and strengthening support for vulnerable countries through flexible coalitions and complementary fora.
2. Secure continuity through strategic coordination
Preserving climate ambition through the next G20 cycles will require coordinated stewardship across past and future presidencies, and with a wider group of partners. With climate unlikely to feature prominently in 2026, countries committed to sustained action should work together to keep reporting timelines, technical mandates, and follow-up on commitments.
If key climate workstreams stall in the G20, governments should be ready to shift these discussions to other forums and formats. Flexible coalitions, ministerial groupings and complementary platforms can maintain some continuity on issues such as sustainable finance, climate finance reform, and the energy transition. Maintaining these conversations elsewhere will prevent the loss of institutional memory and create a basis for re-anchoring ambition when political conditions change.
Finally, Johannesburg should engage closely with the Global South, including fellow BRICS members India – which will preside BRICS in 2026 and hopes to host COP33 in 2028 – and COP32 host Ethiopia. Emerging powers have a strong interest in linking climate action with industrial development and economic prosperity.
3. Engage constructively to prevent fragmentation
Even as countries prepare to defend climate action, an approach that fully excludes countries not committed would be self-defeating. The US won’t stand alone in resisting language on climate (Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Russia and others may follow suit) so maintaining some engagement is essential to avoid paralysis. The recent G20 Declaration on Debt Sustainability, endorsed by Washington, shows that cooperation on related issues is still possible, even if ambition is constrained.
Discussions should therefore continue through entry points that keep climate-related issues on the agenda, such as energy & climate security, disaster resilience, nature protection, insurance markets, and air and water quality. Canada’s G7 presidency has already tried this approach by connecting energy security with zero- and low-emission sources, critical-mineral supply chains and grid resilience. Similar framing within the G20 could preserve some progress and later support a renewed push for ambition when political conditions improve.
