South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered a clear message in his 2026 State of the Nation Address (SONA): energy‑led growth now drives national strategy.
Amid geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty, the President framed the energy transition firmly as an economic project with a focus on energy security, competitiveness and on attracting investments. This shows that economic imperatives can be delivered by pathways that also support climate ambition.
This shift was reinforced by declaring mining a “sunrise industry,” elevating minerals such as copper, platinum and rare earths but also concerningly signalling continued support for coal. While the energy-led growth strategy signals reform momentum, coal expansion risks undermining long-term competitiveness and investor confidence.
Transforming the electricity system
A defining feature of SONA 2026 was the government’s shift from crisis management to structural energy reform within the electricity system.
The renewable sector is now driving down electricity costs and has become a major job creation sector. Over the past three years, South Africans have installed more than 5,000 MW of rooftop solar, significantly reducing demand on Eskom and helped sharply decrease load‑shedding. This rapid, citizen‑driven build‑out demonstrates real transition momentum, government should now support further decentralised energy.
The South African government maintains its goal for over 40% clean energy by 2030, aligning with the nation’s 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) which also projects renewables supplying just over 40% of South Africa’s electricity by 2030 as part of the country’s revised long‑term energy mix. This clear alignment between departmental planning and political commitment strengthens investor confidence.
The President underscored that expanding the transmission grid is essential to accelerate renewable energy, with independent transmission projects beginning in 2026, and emphasised that South Africa must never again depend on a single supplier. Grid expansion is the critical for unlocking new clean power; the new Transmission System Operator, National Treasury and private investors must fast‑track financing and prioritise build‑out in high‑potential provinces.
In his address, the President directly acknowledged tension between the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act’s vision of an independent transmission system operator and Eskom’s recent efforts to retain transmission assets within the National Transmission Company of South Africa. By endorsing a fully independent but state-owned transmission operator, the President restores alignment with global best practice. Credible independence lowers risk and accelerates capital flows; government must now operationalise the independent transmission system, appoint capable leadership and enforce transparent access rules to build trust.
The rise and prominence of the mining Industry
The President framed mining as a “sunrise industry,” stressing South Africa’s rich mineral endowment and the growing global demand for critical minerals used in batteries, EVs, renewable technologies and advanced manufacturing.
He noted that South Africa’s ore reserves exceed USD 2.5 trillion and pointed to renewed investor confidence at Mining Indaba, where coal amongst other minerals signalled expansion. Investor momentum must shift toward critical minerals that support renewable energy expansion, not fossil fuels.
The new coal developments include new coal project proposals and coal mines running longer than expected. This shows that although renewable energy deployment is gaining momentum, to truly realise the benefits of the transition the government must commit to No New Coal power and accelerate retirements to reach coal phase-out.
Update on the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JETIP)
The President noted that the international pledges for South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JETIP) now stand at USD13.5 million, supporting largescale investment in renewable manufacturing, infrastructure, and skills across the transition value chain.
While the JETIP is a central pillar of the country’s transition architecture, SONA 2026 referenced it principally as an economic development tool rather than a climate driven initiative. This framing strengthens political buy‑in by embedding it into mainstream growth and country priorities, but it risks diluting its core climate purpose and weakening pressure for coal phase‑down.
From energy reform to climate credibility
A notable feature of SONA 2026 was the limited emphasis on climate change. While flooding and South Africa’s G20 Presidency were referenced, climate ambition was not foregrounded as in previous years.
In a more fragmented global order, framing the transition primarily as economic strategy may strengthen its domestic durability. Yet South Africa’s credibility as a climate-vulnerable economy and a leader within the G20 and BRICS depends on aligning structural reform, industrial ambition and climate commitment into a coherent strategy.
2026 will test whether energy-led growth can align competitiveness, structural reform and climate ambition into a coherent and credible transition strategy.
