A critical test in a fractured world
The year 2025 is pivotal for global climate cooperation, not least because it marks the deadline for states to submit enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. These NDCs are intended to set out countries’ scaled-up mitigation and adaptation targets and policies through to 2035. Yet, as highlighted in a recent E3G briefing paper, political attention remains distracted, pulled in multiple directions by armed conflicts, trade tensions, and a fragmenting global order. The formal February deadline for enhanced NDCs passed with little fanfare: as of early June, only 22 countries had submitted updated plans, including five G20 members: the United States under the Biden administration, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Japan, and Canada.
The importance of NDCs
If the world fails to seize the opportunity presented by the new round of NDCs, it risks creating a significant credibility gap in the global climate regime at a time when coordinated action is essential. NDCs are the backbone of the Paris Agreement. They are not mere reporting tools, but strategic frameworks through which countries define their development models, industrial transitions, and adaptation plans. Well-designed NDCs send critical signals to investors, markets, and citizens alike—charting pathways toward resilience, low-carbon growth, and a renewable energy future. Amid global uncertainty, they can drive economic security, unlock competitiveness, and help attract the investment needed for future-proofing national economies.
Despite the slow start, there have been encouraging signs. Among high-income countries, the United Kingdom stands out for the ambition of its updated NDC. Meanwhile, developing countries such as Kenya and Nepal have used their NDCs to integrate climate goals with broader development priorities, highlighting the need for international finance and investment.
However, it is particularly concerning that some of the largest actors, whose contributions and leadership are essential to closing the global ambition gap, have so far remained on the sidelines. The European Union is still engaged in internal consultations over its updated NDC, which may include ambitious targets but risks being undermined by excessive reliance on carbon credits. In China, President Xi Jinping has pledged to submit a “comprehensive” NDC, yet details remain scarce. Meanwhile, India, another key emerging economy, continues to resist raising its mitigation ambition, maintaining its focus on energy access and adaptation priorities.
What must happen next
Given the severity of the challenge, global efforts should focus on two key goals:
- Fill the Leadership Vacuum: The climate test of 2025 is universal, but the EU and China are the two actors best positioned—and most urgently needed—to reset momentum. Decisions made in Brussels and Beijing in the coming months will help determine whether the next round of NDCs triggers a meaningful shift in global ambition or merely reinforces the status quo.
- Reset Expectations, Double Down: Aggregate NDC ambition will likely fall well short of what is needed to keep temperature rise below 1.5°C, and even 2°C remains far off track. Rather than being a source of despair, this reality should serve as a mandate to double down on accelerating domestic implementation, enhancing transparency and accountability mechanisms, and forging stronger coalitions to sustain long-term cooperation. Delivering on existing commitments is critical to restoring credibility and raising ambition in the near future.
NDCs in COP30 and beyond
The moment calls for intensified pressure to raise both ambition and implementation, and Brazil, as COP30 host, must rise to this challenge. It is imperative that the COP30 Action Agenda and delivery outcomes are grounded in the reality of NDC submissions. The focus in Belém, and already looking ahead to COP31, should be on identifying where and how to fill the inevitable gaps between existing NDCs and what is needed to keep 1.5°C within reach. On NDC action, diplomacy, and delivery, the time for a reset is now, before the window for course correction closes.
There is still time to submit ambitious and investable NDCs ahead of COP30, and several countries are expected to announce their targets in the lead-up to key international moments: the EU–China summit in July, the UN General Assembly in September, COP30 itself in November, and the G20 in December. Despite the difficult context, the 2025 milestone must not be wasted. There is still time to build momentum ahead of COP30, while laying the groundwork for what comes next. After the summit, the global community will need robust mechanisms to track delivery, strengthen accountability, and sustain implementation.
