Europe cannot secure its economy, strengthen its industrial base, or protect citizens from future shocks while remaining dependent on imported fossil fuels. The current crisis has made this undeniable.
Since the crisis began, Europe has spent an additional €60 billion on fossil fuel imports – money transferred abroad that could instead have strengthened domestic industry, modernised infrastructure and supported households. As long as this dependence persists, so too will Europe’s exposure to external coercion, repeated price shocks and supply chain vulnerability. Shifting to LNG imports will not alleviate Europe’s vulnerability.
In contrast, the case for clean electrification is striking. In an increasingly competitive global economy, access to affordable, domestically generated clean energy will become a defining advantage for industrial production and long-term investment. Europe’s gas and oil demand is projected to fall by more than 25% by 2030, and full structural independence from fossil fuels could unlock up to €1.6 trillion in savings across the European economy.
The political conditions are highly favourable. New polling across five major EU countries shows that support for electrification technologies, clean energy investment and European cooperation on energy security bridges across political divides, extending consistently to centre-right voters. European businesses are also showing growing support for the transition to renewables-based electricity, with 90% of French businesses and 84% of Polish businesses saying electrification would improve energy security.
The June European Council and the forthcoming Electrification Action Plan offer more than an opportunity to adjust policy. They provide a chance to define a new strategic direction for Europe.
Europe has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to act decisively when faced with historic challenges. The Single Market created a continent-sized economy. The euro strengthened Europe’s economic sovereignty. Following the pandemic, common borrowing helped protect jobs and accelerate recovery. Today, a new challenge demands a similarly ambitious response. Energy independence should become Europe’s defining strategic project for the coming decade. This is not simply an energy agenda. It is a security strategy, an industrial strategy and a competitiveness strategy rolled into one.
Delivering that ambition requires action on four fronts.
First, Europe must make clean electrification the central organising principle of its energy strategy. Across homes, transport and industry, the technologies needed to replace fossil fuels already exist and are increasingly cost-competitive. What is lacking is political momentum. Leaders should establish a clear framework for achieving fossil fuel independence, provide long-term certainty for investment beyond 2030, reform electricity pricing so that clean electricity is consistently cheaper than fossil fuels, and accelerate the grid investments needed to connect new industrial projects and clean power generation.
Second, Europe must strengthen its leadership in the industries that will underpin the new energy economy. Europe remains a global leader in sectors including grids, wind power, heat pumps, industrial decarbonisation technologies and advanced energy storage. Yet that advantage is narrowing. The goal should not simply be to deploy these technologies, but to manufacture, innovate, and export them from Europe. The Clean Industrial Deal and Industrial Accelerator Act provide important foundations, but they must be matched by a stronger commitment to creating demand, scaling production and securing Europe’s technological leadership.
Third, Europe must mobilise investment on a scale commensurate with the challenge. Energy independence and industrial renewal together represent the most important European economic project since the creation of the Single Market. Europe possesses the capital, savings and financial institutions necessary to finance this transformation. What is required is the political will to direct them towards shared strategic European priorities. Greater use of European Investment Bank instruments, more effective deployment of ETS revenues, targeted fiscal flexibility and a new common financing instrument could help ensure that every member state has the capacity to invest in grids, electrification, industrial modernisation and cross-border infrastructure. European savings should be invested in Europe’s future.
Finally, Europe must help shape the international partnerships that underpin a resilient clean-energy economy. Many countries across the Indo-Pacific, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East face the same vulnerabilities that Europe does: dependence on concentrated supply chains, exposure to fossil fuel volatility and growing competition for strategic technologies and materials. Europe should place clean energy security, industrial cooperation and resilient supply chains at the centre of a new international agenda built around shared prosperity and economic resilience.
The choice facing Europe is straightforward. It can continue managing recurring energy crises and the vulnerabilities that accompany them, or it can seize this moment to eliminate their root cause. By committing to energy independence through clean electrification, industrial renewal and strategic investment, Europe can turn today’s crisis into a lasting source of strength and make this Europe’s final energy crisis.
