April 2017    
Cooperation or Crash? Avoiding the worst case scenarios for the Brexit negotiations 

Dear reader,

After 44 years in the EU the UK has started the process for leaving the Union. This process will have far reaching implications for energy markets and climate policy both in the UK and across the EU.
Since the UK’s referendum on EU membership, E3G has been working intensively with partners in the UK and EU27 to analyse the interests at play, develop scenarios for how the negotiations might play out, assess how the broad negotiation dynamics may impact climate and energy, and propose workable options for securing positive outcomes for climate change and energy.
By building a deeper awareness of the negotiation dynamics we hope to offer insight into the potential for catalysing continued UK-EU27 cooperation on energy and climate change, and demonstrate how such cooperation could provide the key for unlocking the wider negotiations.
With the headline negotiation issues of economic integration, movement of people and sovereignty likely leading the negotiations towards conflict, negotiators will be faced with a choice: cooperation or crash?

Thanks for reading,

Pete Clutton-Brock

Brexit climate hot air baloon.orig Report — 5 April 2017
Brexit Scenarios: The implications for Energy and Climate Change
by Shane Tomlinson
E3G’s scenarios analysis highlights the substantial risks for energy and climate policy posed by a disorganised, sovereignty-driven Brexit negotiation process, and concludes that a cooperation track in the negotiations is crucial for maintaining climate ambition.

Tower bridge shard at night coloured lighting Briefing Paper — 5 April 2017
Brexit and the EU Energy Union: Keeping Europe’s Energy and Climate Transition on Track
by Jonathan Gaventa
Brexit does not change the underlying case for the EU Energy Union, but it does pose specific challenges that will need to be managed. This new E3G working paper sets out how to keep Europe’s climate and energy transition on track through the Brexit process.

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Mind the Gap: What is at stake on energy and climate in the Brexit negotiations
by Nick Mabey
Brexit carries the risk of gaps emerging in the UK in environmental protection; future cooperation; clean investment and global influence. However, by forming cooperative processes within the Brexit negotiations, we can not only address these gaps, but also set the tone for the rest of the negotiations.

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Brexit Saga: Tracking the reactions of the EU27
by Elisa Giannelli
This “Storify” tracks the reactions of European leaders’ to the Article 50 letter submitted on 29th March 2017 by collating their twitter and press comments. Poland's Europe Minister Szymanski offers perhaps the most succinct analysis on the tension that risks leading to impasse: “the closer UK will want to be with single market, the more open borders will be required”.

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