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On December 5th, the Green Party of Germany organised an experts discussion in the German Parliament on Carbon Capture and Storage entitled ‘CO2-free Power Plants: PR Gag or Option for the Future?’. A range of presentations were given by scientists, parliamentarians and companies. In addition, Green Party MP Reinhold Loske moderated a podium discussion with members from the environmental community and other experts.

The event presented a wealth of scientific information from climate science to geology and explored the challenges and opportunities around carbon capture and storage. In addition, RWE and BP presented their activities on CCS.

There is a great amount of concern around CCS in Germany, which is currently very dependent on coal and is in the midst of deciding which sources should dominate the energy mix in the future. There are worries that CCS could just be a “PR Gag” for the coal and utility industries to continue with business as usual. This is indeed a risk, but many discussed how to make them part of the solution. This would include making it very clear that after a certain date only CO2-free power stations should be built in Europe.

Much must occur in parallel to this including an accelerated research program focused on key issues around storage, permits, and how to retrofit old power plants to use CCS technologies.  It is crucial that the CCS debate occurs in a transparent and fact-based manner, especially in the involvement of civil society. The March 2007 meeting of the European Council, and the entire EU Strategic Energy Review, must take up these issues and provide a way forward.

E3G’s Jennifer Morgan contributed to the discussion. The content of her briefing paper follows below.

Carbon Capture and Storage
Meinshausen, M and Hare, W. PIK report 93, 2004, figure 8 

1.) According to recent research, an average global warming of 2°C will result in dangerous and irreversible impacts (IPCC 2001, Graßl et al. 2003, Hare 2003, ECF and PIK 2004), which will rapidly worsen above a 2°C warming. These climate change impacts will lead to increased threats to human lives, particularly in poorer populations, loss of ecosystems and more instability.

Meinshausen, M. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge 2005

2.) The weight of new scientific evidence shows climate sensitivity is far higher than previously estimated.  A doubling of concentration levels to 550 ppmv is likely to bring about a 3°C rise in temperature.

3.) The correct risk management strategy is to keep in the low probability range of a 2°C rise.  This implies a concentration level of 450 ppmv CO2eq to maintain a 50% chance of staying below 2°C, with a 400 ppmv CO2eq providing a greater than 50% chance.

4.) Actual reductions in global emissions would correspondingly need to be 40% below 1990 by 2050. Action in developed countries would need to be for reductions of 30-35% below 1990 level by 2020, with developing economies’ emissions continuing to grow up to 2010 or 2020 but reducing substantially thereafter. Global emissions must peak and decline in the next 10 to 15 years.

 
5.) Coal is an abundant and ‘secure’ energy source in countries where energy demand is soaring. It is clear that the USA, China, India and Russia will continue to rely on coal far into the future. 

Data provided by NRDC

Data provided by NRDC

Data provided by NRDC

If CCS research and development is not accelerated it will only become commercially viable around 2020. This would mean that all but the last three years of the plants in the IEA 2030 pipeline will have been built or designed before current EU and US research programs provide adequate information. This assumes a seven-year lead-time from design to plant start-up.

 

 
6.) Of particular importance in energy and climate security policy are mandatory and ambitious minimum efficiency standards for key products and processes. These standards should be obligatory and dynamic, thus leading to a continued improvement in the energy performance of products. 

7.) In order to scale up renewables as quickly as possible, proper policies need to be put in place including feed-in laws which can be adjusted over time as the price of renewables decreases. 

8.) While some of the demand for the build can be managed by efficiency gains and some of the needed supply can be replaced by renewable sources, additional options will be required to stay below 2°C. Carbon capture and storage could likely supply another pathway. 

Carbon capture and storage is a major plank of the IEA and others strategies, with CCS technologies contributing between 20% and 28% of total CO2 emission reductions below the Baseline Scenario by 2050. (‘Energy Technology Perspectives 2006, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050’ International Energy Agency) However, as the study identifies, the task is to combine all the demonstrated elements into an integrated full-scale demonstration plant. While on the one hand, it could provide an important transitional strategy that tackles CO2 and local pollutants, there are a number of unanswered questions that must be addressed as quickly as possible, especially leakage and biodiversity impacts.  

9.) Accelerated research is also required to increase options, eg concentrated solar and integrated pilot plants on carbon capture and storage. In the case of both, accelerated research is needed in both developed and developing countries to build a number of integrated full-scale CCS demonstration plants while ensuring that increased research funds are also available for renewable energy and energy efficiency.  



10.) Clear signals must be sent that full internalisation of external costs will occur in real time. To give the strong and credible signal needed to drive large scale investment Europe should regulate that all new build power plants must be zero-emissions after 2015, with builds before then investing to be ‘CCS ready’, meaning finance and commitment to implement, and those after 2015 retrofitted so that the entire sector is zero-emissions emissions by 2025.  

11.) Innovation rates and rates of deployment is dependent on the policy framework and funding provided to accelerate the research and development of the technology.

Experience of learning by doing in other technologies has shown that rapid cost reductions are possible

Investing in demonstration and getting the regulatory structure right led to a sharp leap in the deployment of renewable technologies at the end of the 1990s

Learning curve data for selected technologies, ICCEPT, Assessment of Technological Options to Address Climate Change, 2002

Global wind turbine installed capacity, PIU, Technical and economic potential of renewable energy generating technologies: Potentials and cost reductions to 2020, 2002

Global PV module shipments, PIU, Technical and economic potential of renewable energy generating technologies: Potentials and cost reductions to 2020, 2002
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