Delivering a Global Deal
Opinion pieces, briefing papers and research documents
By Tom Burke
Durban did not fail. That is by far and away the most important outcome from the latest round of climate negotiations. Failure would have effectively removed any prospect of achieving a legally binding global agreement to avoid dangerous climate change. It would have set the world on a path to becoming 4°C, or more, warmer.
It is worth remembering that a 4°C global average temperature rise
By Nick Mabey
Europe is currently so enmeshed in a narrative of weakness and decline that it seems to have missed the real success it achieved at the Durban climate conference. To read the European press, and much of the commentary by European environmental organisations, you would think that Durban had been a complete failure, or at best an uneventful talking shop.
But Durban achieved much more than this.
Countries emerged from intense negotiations in Durban this morning with a commitment to strike a legally binding global climate deal in 2015. Progress was led by a new “Green Coalition” between the European Union, Small Island States, Least Developed Countries and progressive Latin Americans which overcame objections from those blocking a roadmap to a new binding deal. The prospect of a
By Shane Tomlinson, Liz Gallagher, Amal-Lee Amin
After the disappointment of Copenhagen, Cancun secured a lifeline outcome for the negotiations and reaffirmed the UNFCCC as the primary venue for managing climate risk. Durban must build on the trust and momentum from Cancun to set out a pathway to secure a global deal. The world is not yet ready to conclude all aspects of the negotiation this year. However, the stakes at Durban remain high.
By Tom Burke
December, it is turning out, is actually the cruellest month. It is when nations normally meet every year to make progress on tackling climate change. This year, they will meet in Durban. Do not expect too much.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has just published its annual World Energy Outlook. The 2011 edition makes grim reading. Current policies, it projects, put us on course for a
By Nick Mabey
Two years after Copenhagen, Europe finds itself central to shaping the direction of the global climate change regime again.
By the Durban conference in December the EU needs to decide whether - and how - it will sign-up to a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol. But Europe is characteristically dithering over the choices involved, and is therefore failing to shape the global
By Nick Mabey and Shane Tomlinson
The experience of managing complex peacekeeping missions has led the military to coin a valuable term: the “strategic colonels”.
Strategic colonels can change the course of entire campaigns by the way they handle seemingly small local events. Such as resisting the desire to use deadly force against a hostile rock throwing crowd when fired upon by armed insurgents mixed with the population.
By Nick Mabey and Matthew Findlay
Following a process of reflection on the lessons of the Copenhagen Climate Summit, Europe has begun to articulate elements of its forward strategy. At the Spring Council on 25-26 March European leaders adopted conclusions on climate change which broadly endorsed the strategy laid out in a Commission Communication of 9 March. One of the emerging themes is the need for more effective European
By Matthew Findlay and Nick Mabey
“As immediate emotions fade, space is opening for more measured reflections on the lessons of the Copenhagen. Nowhere is this more important than in Europe, where some commentators are gleefully proclaiming the end of multilateralism and asserting the marginalisation of European power. These readings of Copenhagen are wrong. The real lesson is that an active EU remains central to preventing
By Nick Mabey
“Greenwash” agreement won’t stop dangerous climate change
Global Leaders came to Copenhagen carrying the expectations of their populations but have failed to deliver a real solution. The political agreement struck at Copenhagen falls short in so many areas that it cannot form a reliable basis for limiting temperature rise to below 2°C. Leaders must stop presenting this as progress and