E3G

Climate Security and the Ministry of Defence

By Chris Littlecott

Strategic Trends 2007 - 2036

What Arnold-Foster doesn’t mention in his article is just how strong the focus is on Climate Change in current military thinking about the near future.

The recently published DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme for 2007 - 2036 puts the three issues of climate change, globalization and global inequality right up front in its analysis. It then draws on them in its longer discussions of the themes of Population and Resources, Identity and Interest, Governance and Order, and Knowledge and Innovation.

Global Strategic Trends Cover

The Strategic Trends document is produced by the Development, Concepts & Doctrine Centre (DCDC), which has responsibility for the development of the Joint Doctrine that guides how the UK Armed Forces conduct their operations, for the provision of long-term conceptual underpinning for the development of future capability and for an analysis of the future strategic context.

There are no clear cut policy prescriptions from the document: its role is instead to be a source document for the development of UK Defence Policy, and it doesn’t represent official government policy. Nevertheless it is important - it is independent, and the ongoing discussions it feeds into play a central role in shaping future defence strategy.

It is worth a read purely for the insights it gives into how the military view the challenge of interdependence. To give an idea of its down-to-earth style, here’s an introductory paragraph:

During the next 30 years, every aspect of human life will change at an unprecedented rate, throwing up new features, challenges and opportunities. Three areas of change, or Ring Road issues, will touch the lives of everyone on the planet and will underpin these processes: climate change, globalization and global inequality.

Progressive climate change will shape the physical environment within which a rapidly expanding world population will live, influencing variable access to habitable land, food and water…”