E3G

Security trends and threat misperceptions

By Nick Mabey

Four Trends to Watch

Interdependence heightens our exposure to governance failures and instability elsewhere in the world. These risks are being heightened by four key trends that will strengthen over the coming decades.

Organised crime and corruption
Before 9/11, international security discussions frequently focused on the rapid growth of organised crime as one of the largest security threats. Though terrorism has largely displaced organised crime as a priority in security and intelligence agencies, at least in the USA and Europe, crime remains a core concern. Illegal drug use alone costs the UK £24 billion every year in crime, health and policing costs. Online fraud and extortion are increasingly a trans-boundary problem, with a growing incidence in the UK of infrastructure attacks.

The markets supplied by international organised crime are estimated to be worth around $1 trillion annually. Market growth is fastest in urban areas in newly industrialised countries, and in Africa, which is fast becoming a major transit and demand area for illegal drugs; in 2004, five of the seven fastest growing markets for heroin were in Sub-Saharan Africa. International organised crime undermines and corrupts supply and transit countries, and leads to high levels of violence. Latin America shows these impacts very clearly. Crime-related violence is the major cause of death for young men in five Latin American countries, and costs the continent $138 billion every year as well as financing urban and rural narco-insurgencies in several countries.

Organised crime by its nature corrupts public institutions, particularly law enforcement and border systems; global money laundering activity alone is estimated to involve annual flows of $800 billion. Around 85% of Class A drugs are sourced in countries classified as unstable; for example, Afghanistan, Columbia and Burma. Transdniestria in Moldova is an example where organised criminal networks involved in the arms and drug trade are closely linked to the ruling elite and have become embedded in the institutions of the country. This is driving instability on Europe’s borders and spreading corruption to other countries, as well as increasing the risk of terrorists gaining access to sophisticated weaponry.

Organised crime creates an illegal infrastructure which is readily exploited by terrorist groups that do not themselves have the financial power to bribe officials. Al-Qaeda’s global budget has been estimated at between $10-50 million a year, which is dwarfed by organised crime flows in its core operating areas in Asia, Middle East and East Africa. Drug-smuggling networks are thought to have provided the transit routes to take Afghani insurgents to Iraq for training in the manufacture and tactics of “improvised explosive devices”. Worldwide, there are over 35 reported cases of close links between international organised crime and terrorist groups. Organised crime in the UK is also funding conflict; for example, through extortion and fraud the Tamil community in London is a source of funds for the Tamil Tigers, and the Turkish Kurdish community for the PKK.

The globalisation of transit routes and the demand for illegal commodities will make law enforcement action against organised crime groups increasingly complex, and will spread the destabilising impact of corruption widely.