E3G

Towards a low carbon future, together

By Bernice Lee and Nick Mabey

Sharing low-carbon pie

In the next quarter century, US$20 trillion will be needed for investment in energy supply infrastructure according to the IEA. China alone requires about US$3.7 trillion. To avoid locking into carbon intensive options, serious decisions are needed today to ensure a smoother transition to a low-carbon future.

Two rival paths lie ahead. One takes us down the road of old-styled trade, emphasising export interests and the obsessive cultivation of national champions. The other takes advantage of the opportunities offered by globalisation and interdependence to lever win-win solutions that bring not only national economic benefits but also the public goods of energy and climate security.

Ensuring that China gains a sizeable piece of the low carbon pie is key to the viability of the second path. It would provide incentives for China to play a larger role in next global deal on climate change. But this will not happen under business as usual; where entrenched interests argue for national preferences and promote the politics of fear towards Chinese investment.

Taking advantage of the powerful dynamics of globalisation to help the move towards a global low-carbon economy, and preserving energy and climate security, will require strategic decisions at the highest level in governments and businesses. Only by considering the long term national interest can policies made in environment, planning, trade, investment and technology ministries become mutually reinforcing in the drive towards a low-carbon future.

Only by presenting an overall political narrative for these changes will public support be generated for the type of deep cooperation Europe must build with China. The responsibility for progressive political and business leaders is clear. They must start leading this debate and shaping the foreign policy choices of the future. If they fail, we will see efforts to construct a low carbon and secure energy future frustrated by the narrow concerns of special interest groups.

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This article first appeared in the October edition of The World Today, published by Chatham House in London. A pdf version is attached for download.