E3G

Rising to the challenge of interdependency

By Jennifer Morgan

China and Europe share similar concerns when it comes to energy security and the future of our changing climate. Increased cooperation lights the way ahead.

So writes Jennifer Morgan in an article featured on the new ‘Changing Climates’ forum hosted by chinadialogue.

Rising to the challenge of interdependency

There is no more powerful dynamic at work in the world today than the economic transformation of China. No other country in world history has managed to achieve economic growth of 8% to 10% for nearly two decades. No other country has transformed itself – in just 13 years – from being a major oil exporter to being the world’s second-largest oil importer, expected to overtake the US by 2030. But with China’s unprecedented economic expansion comes the risk of significant consequences to the climate. People have come to fear China not only because of its growing economic might, but also because of the greenhouse-gas emissions that go with it.

Europe and China face mutual and interlinked challenges. Both worry about energy security, especially rising dependence on imported oil and gas; both worry about the economic impacts of climate change; and both want to achieve climate stability without undermining energy security. Europe has learned the hard way that taking a path of “soft” power – of cooperation – is a better route than engaging in the “hard” power needed to compete for scare resources. Today, China is experimenting with both, and its decision to adopt one path or the other will have a resounding impact on the planet. The hard approach would likely lead to increased conflicts over natural resources, the softer path to massive efficiency improvements and the development of renewable energy sources at home. The world’s largest single market and its fastest growing economy need to work together to ensure China takes the path of soft power.

The fact is that Europe cannot respond to the threat posed by climate change on its own. We live in an interdependent world, and Europe must build an engagement with China, one in which China has an equal interest.

Choices made in China matter deeply. A stable and growing China will provide higher returns on European investments and trade, which will be critical in securing pensions for Europe’s ageing population. China’s decisions about its infrastructure needs will determine, to a large extent, what will be achievable globally in the way of stabilising, and eventually, reducing emissions. China currently emits about 14% of the world’s greenhouse gases and is expected to contribute about 17% by 2020. The country is deploying capital so quickly that it offers the quickest route to bringing new, clean energy technologies to maturity. By working together, Europe and China could substantially bring down the cost of low-carbon technologies and make them available to other, less industrialised countries around the world.