E3G

China’s climate choices

By Nick Mabey and Diana Parusheva

China opts for coal
In order to maintain stability China needs to continue growing. It has been estimated that a GDP growth below 7% per year would risk destabilising Chinese society. Chinese leaders are aware of the likely socio-political impact of slower growth and in response they have taken radical decisions to ensure a secure energy supply for China’s industrial sector.

With no political option but to maintain high rates of continuous economic growth, China is left with the problem of dealing with increasing energy demand. There is no doubt where the majority of that energy will come from. In a world where energy competition dominates regional and international politics, China sees no alternative but to use its huge coal resources. Since 2003 China has been the world’s largest coal producer and the real choice for China – and for us – is deciding how it will use its coal. Will it capture and store the carbon emissions from coal-fired power stations or will it release them into the atmosphere?

China is deploying capital so fast that it offers the quickest route to bringing new clean energy technologies to maturity

China is short on time to decide how clean its coal-based energy sector will be. Every five days a new 1GW power coal station is built in China and each of these represents a commitment to largescale carbon emissions for decades to come. If all of China’s planned coal-fired power stations are built by 2030 without carbon capture and storage they will emit 59GtC carbon over their lifetimes, which is equivalent to one-third of global carbon emissions released between 1975 and 2000. Clearly, there is no time to hesitate over whether to engage with China on these issues.

Vulnerable to climate impacts
For China, energy security is the key to internal stability. Chinese leaders have recognised their dependence on imported fuels and the effect that energy shortages could have on their political legitimacy. China is also aware of its vulnerability to a changing climate. The advancing Gobi desert increased in size by 52,400 square kilometres in just five years and is now a mere 240km from Beijing. Meanwhile, the Bianmo desert is approaching the Chinese capital from the other side. These encroaching deserts act as a reminder to the Chinese leadership of the impacts of climate change. China is already facing water shortages, which have resulted in internal environmental refugees and severe business losses.

Leaders in China recognise the problem of climate change and understand how urgent it is. China has already drawn up an energy strategy similar to that of the EU, with an emphasis on securing energy supply through diversification of sources, radically increasing energy efficiency, and increasing the share of renewable energy to 15% by 2010.

The question is whether China will be able to meet its climate and energy security targets. A review of China’s previous five year energy plan shows that, so far, it has not been effectively implemented. Despite its spectacular growth, China remains a developing country with a wide distribution of control, weak governance, immature regulatory systems and high levels of corruption. All of these factors are likely to undermine the achievement of targets set by the central leadership. We all have an interest in helping China overcome these obstacles.