E3G

Security trends and threat misperceptions

By Nick Mabey

The Smith Institute has recently launched a new publication entitled “Britain and Security” which includes a chapter authored by E3G Chief Executive Nick Mabey.

The publication analyses the security challenges facing Britain in the face of “international and domestic terrorism; energy insecurity; organised crime; infectious disease; and the consequences of conflicts and instability elsewhere in the world”.

Nick Mabey’s chapter is titled “Security trends and threat misperceptions”, and focuses on:

The security challenges of growing interdependence

Four trends to watch – organised crime and corruption, infectious diseases, financial stability, and energy and climate security

Reducing the risks of instability and conflict

Rebalancing the strategic mix

The full text follows below and is also attached in PDF format for download. The whole publication can be downloaded from The Smith Institute website.

Security Trends and Threat Misperceptions

Contribution to ‘Britain and Security’ ed. Dr Paul Cornish, published by The Smith Institute

Nick Mabey

Beyond Intent: The Security Challenges of Growing Interdependence

The threat of terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction dominates the conventional security agenda, and in doing so often obscures trends which have far larger impacts on the security and prosperity of UK citizens and companies. These threats emerge from the rapidly growing interdependence which is the defining feature of our world: an interdependence that is deepening through multiple channels of communication, trade, investment, migration, and the impact of economic pressures on the supply of natural resources and climate stability.

The spectacular rise of China illustrates how these changes will affect the global security landscape, in both positive and negative ways. China is radically changing the global economic power balance, leading to concerns about competitiveness and future military threats. China’s interventions in Africa, Central Asia and South Asia to secure access to energy and minerals are affecting the whole range of security concerns: from limiting Security Council action against Iran and Darfur, to weakening the international community’s influence in moving regimes like Myanmar and Zimbabwe towards democratic reforms. China will become the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the next five to 10 years.