E3G

China’s climate choices

By Nick Mabey and Diana Parusheva

China’s economic growth is unstoppable and with it comes an ever-expanding carbon footprint. The worst possible response from Europe to China’s bulging contribution to climate change would be fearful paralysis, argue Nick Mabey and Diana Parusheva of E3G in this article published in ENDS Climate Review. A pdf version of the article is attached for download.

China’s climate choices

There is no more powerful dynamic at work in the world today than the economic transformation of China. No other country in world history has managed to achieve economic growth of 8-10% for nearly two decades. No other country has transformed itself – in just 13 years – from a major oil exporter to the world’s second largest oil importer, expected to overtake the USA by 2030. But with China’s unprecedented economic expansion comes the risk of significant climate consequences. People have come to fear China not simply because of its growing economic might, but because of the carbon emissions that go with it.

We have already crossed the line where we could think of China as a distant country with far-away problems. Today, we face mutual and interlinked challenges. Both China and Europe worry about energy security, especially rising dependence on imported oil and gas. Both worry about the economic impacts of climate change, and both want to achieve climate stability without undermining energy security.

The USA and the EU consume about 70% of Chinese production. China’s environmental footprint is therefore our footprint and China’s appetite for energy and natural resources is, in truth driven by our needs

Choices made in China matter deeply. A stable and growing China will provide higher returns on our investments and trade and will be critical in securing pensions for our ageing population. China’s decisions about its infrastructure needs will determine, to a large extent, what will be achievable globally in the way of greenhouse gas emission stabilisation and, eventually, reduction. China currently emits about 14% of the world’s greenhouse gases and is expected to contribute about 17% by 2020. China is deploying capital so quickly that it offers the quickest route to bringing new, clean energy technologies to maturity.

China’s economy is export-driven. Together the USA and the EU consume about 70% of Chinese production. China’s environmental footprint is therefore our footprint and China’s appetite for energy and natural resources is, in truth, driven by our needs. Of course, this will gradually change as domestic consumption within China rises. For instance, car ownership in China is currently low, at 17 million, but it is expected to rocket to 145 million by 2020.

We cannot respond to the threat posed by climate change on our own. We live in an interdependent world and we must build an engagement with China, one in which China has an equal interest. Our success in this endeavour will do much to determine whether we spend this century responding to extreme climatic events beyond our control. The age of genuine global interdependence has
arrived and we must embrace it and make it work.