E3G

Bright spark leading the way: John Ashton Interview

By Chris Littlecott

The Irish Independent today carries an extensive interview with E3G Founding Director John Ashton.

Focusing mainly on the political challenges John deals with as Special Representative for Climate Change at the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, journalist Brendan Keenan starts his article by referring to John’s role here at E3G:

Mr Ashton has a double qualification for the job, being a rare example of a professional diplomat with a science degree. He was an advisor to the last Hong Kong governor, Chris Patten, and later formed E3G, a “change agency”, which has brokered deals on climate and energy between developed and developing countries.

The interview proper starts with John’s overview of the scale of the challenge we face:

He does not go in for diplomatic niceties when it comes to climate change, arguing that the threat it poses to countries’ futures is on a par with the gravest security dangers, or even full-scale war.

“This is as big a political challenge as any we have ever faced,” says Ashton, who spoke at the Irish Government’s major Energy Forum in Dublin last week. “How do we, in a generation, build a low carbon global economy?”

Part of this challenge is how to pay for it. In particular, concerns are often raised about the impact of increased energy prices. For example, a figure of 1% of EU GDP is sometimes estimated as the cost of the EU Emissions Trading System:

“That is one cost: we also need to look at the cost of failing to make the transition to a low-carbon economy,” says Ashton. “The Stern report showed that the costs of failure are much higher than the costs of action. Failure costs are on a par with the two World Wars or the Great Depression and pose a threat to both prosperity and national security.”

But these negative implications need to be supported by a more positive message of the benefits of action:

“The first thing is to build public confidence in our ability to do it, among voters and others,” he says. “If you look at Germany, in my view Chancellor Merkel is ahead of the game, but manufacturing interests are often very conservative.”

A change in business and financial sentiment may be one of the key drivers. “The corporate sector is saying to the politicians that it needs early, predictable policies in making its decisions. We are already seeing on Wall Street that they are nervous about whether they should finance new coal-fired power stations or not.”

Voters will need to be convinced that burdens are shared fairly between consumers, taxpayers and shareholders. “Unless we can convince people that this is compatible with jobs growth, it won’t be politically practical. It cannot be done on the basis of austerity policies. People will not vote for that.”

The interview looked briefly at the topic of biofuels, before turning to the crucial countries for climate change politics – China and the USA:

“Nobody is more conscious of the need for low carbon growth than the Chinese leadership. No economy is more vulnerable than theirs. The low-lying land on the east coast and the big river deltas, where the modern economy is concentrated, would face catastrophe from a significant rise in sea levels.

“As for the US, like any huge country, it is always dangerous to see it as a monolith. California has the eighth biggest economy in the world and has probably done more than anywhere else to advance the environmental agenda.”

He also sees a major shift in US attitudes over the past 18 months. “I think policies at the federal level will be very different one or two years from now.”

And central to making the international deal happen will be the role of the EU:

He sees an opportunity for Europe; to be a first-mover, set an example, develop global policies and reap the benefits of technical leadership. “The big problem for Europe is that it underestimates its own strength and ability to persuade and show example.

“This process has to be part of globalisation and Europe has more experience than anyone in managing the stresses of cross-border economies.”

And where might Ireland be able to play a role in this big-picture diplomatic game?:

“Ireland has far more influence than it might think,” says Ashton. “Its economic success makes Ireland a reference point for others and the positions it takes have enormous resonance in the US. China, the US and others need to understand that we mean business.”