E3G

Energy, Climate, Democracy and the Future of Europe

By Marina Brutinel

On the 5th July, E3G and the Open Society Institute - Brussels held a roundtable entitled ‘Energy, Climate, Democracy and the Future of Europe’. The aim of the event was to undertake some critical shared thinking on the interlinkages between strengthened EU action on Energy and Climate security and the impact on democracy promotion and conflict prevention. A particular focus of discussion was the nature of the political and policy barriers that impede European action.

The roundtable was designed as the first step of a series of events being undertaken by E3G and OSI to reflect on how Europe can better shape the future of our globalised world by leading action on Energy and Climate security issues. The aim of this process is to help animate the development of a coalition of political and policy actors across Europe that will support the realisation of this new, outward-looking prospect for the European project.

The report of the roundtable and the list of participants are attached.

Energy, Climate and Democracy: Introductory presentation by Nick Mabey, Chief Executive, E3G

There is a growing realisation that achieving energy security and climate security is at the core of future global challenges, with implications that go well beyond their traditional policy spheres. For Europe, these challenges will lie at the heart of the future success of its political project, and of the ability of Europeans to continue to live by the values it was founded upon.

Achieving energy and climate security globally is critical to ensure Europe’s future security and prosperity and is at the heart of Europe’s values.

The changing geopolitics of energy, illustrated by the accelerating global scramble for resources, represents the most major threat to the international rules-based order. The increasing provision of political and financial support to dictatorial regimes in Africa and Central Asia and elsewhere in order to secure access to their national resources has led to democratic retreat and fuelled the destabilisation of whole regions. The anti-democratic changes in Russia are an example of the direction the world might move as geo-political competition for fossil fuels emboldens authoritarian regimes.

The strengthening Chinese engagement with repressive leaders in resource rich African countries embodies an even more serious risk. If China continues further along this “hard power” path to secure its energy security, it could lead to a world characterised by new ‘great power competition’, in which Europe would fare badly. Europe by its very nature and purpose is ill-fitted to a world dominated by large powers struggling for the appropriation of world influence and resources. Europe tested this approach to destruction in two world wars and understands that it is not a sustainable foundation for peace and stability. Europe can only thrive in a world promoting cooperation between countries and regions based on a strong multilateral rules-based system, reflecting the European model of fair, peaceful and cooperative development.

If badly managed, the impacts of climate change could accentuate these trends. Military planners in many of the major powers are already predicting the need for enhanced militarization in order to counter-act mass environmental migration in the coming decades. Some security analysts are already calling the crisis in Darfur the first climate change induced conflict. The EU is already struggling with the pressures of illegal immigration from North and West Africa, including the value choices around the interception of migrants at sea and building stronger and more intrusive border controls around “Fortress Europe”. These policy choices are already changing how our neighbours see Europe – from an open to a closed society – and will ultimately shape the future European identity.

The stark geopolitics of climate security will force Europe to take a lead to prevent and manage these pressures in non-military ways. As a recent Pentagon study explained, in the event of rapid climate change the US always has the option to retreat behind its natural borders of the Atlantic and Pacific. Europe has no such “defensive” option to remove itself from the destabilising impacts of climate change in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and the resulting migratory and other pressures.

Europe’s leadership in managing global energy and climate security is not an issue of economics or moral philanthropy, but an essential component of European strategic interest. Such leadership is required in order for Europe to preserve its future prosperity and stability while living in accordance with its fundamental values.