E3G

Decoding Nuclear Nonsense II: the real evidence

By Tom Burke

“A nuclear renaissance is underway around the globe”

But only in the headlines. The build rate for new nuclear power stations around the world has been 1GW/year since 2000. Simply to replace the existing reactors as they become obsolete means building 14GW/year for the next 23 years.

There are major constraints to increasing this rate of build. There is a 6 year waiting list for reactor coolant pumps and only 2 places in the world now produce the specialist forgings required for reactor pressure vessels. Engineers, welders and other workers with the specialised skills for nuclear construction are in short supply and experiencing very high demand for more immediately valuable projects.

These supply chain pressures have seen a rise from $2,000/Kw to $6,000/Kw in the capital cost of new nuclear power stations in just two years. The much vaunted Finnish reactor, the first of the new generation of reactor designs, is already 2 years late after just 2 years of construction. Construction costs are at least 25% greater than forecast and the whole project is more than £1 billion over budget.

“There are problems but they can be overcome by political will.”

This is certainly what Gordon Brown thinks. It is also what Margaret Thatcher thought. Shortly after taking office she announced a programme of 10 new reactors. They were to be built to avoid the danger that Britons would find themselves freezing in the dark. 15 years later 1 reactor had been built at 2 times its original cost. She had been defeated by the economics of nuclear power. No-one froze in the dark.