E3G

Clinton, McCain, Obama – Europe’s opportunity to shape a Presidency

By Jennifer Morgan

2. Europe’s next steps

In order to assess “What Europe should do now”, we must have the ongoing international climate negotiations on a post-2012 agreement in mind. As Boucher notes, at the Bali meeting of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (and its Kyoto Protocol), ministers launched a new round of negotiations scheduled to be completed in Copenhagen in December 2009.

The core elements of these negotiations include what actions developed and developing countries will take to curb their emissions, advance technology innovation and cooperation, strengthen carbon markets, scale up adaptation and address the cross-cutting issue of finance.

The role of the United States in these negotiations will be of central importance, and there are four key issues on which the next US president can re-establish a positive presence on the global stage:

The level of ambition for developed countries.

Parties to the Kyoto Protocol are currently negotiating their next set of targets and timetables for the period after 2012. They have agreed to be guided by the Itergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) data which notes that a reduction of 25 to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020 is required by industrialized ountries to keep open the chance of stabilizing global average temperature between 2.0 and 2.5 degrees C in comparison with pre-industrial levels.

This range is controversial as it could be far too high for the survival of some small island nations and a range of ecosystems (e.g. coral reefs, the Arctic).

The Bali Action Plan has, in a sense, left open a space for the US’ level of mbition to be negotiated under the UNFCCC to which it is a party, and noted that the commitment of the United States should be “comparable” with other industrialised countries. This question of comparability is nicely treated in Boucher’s analysis as it is quite clear that current US legislative proposals, while quite ambitious in the longer-term, are far away from the 25 to 40% range currently under negotiation.

Europe must therefore engage the US Senate and the three candidates sooner rather than later to begin defining what a comparable effort might be. As Boucher notes, Europe will be in a far stronger position for this negotiation if it is able to complete its own legislative process on its target of 20% below 1990 by 2020 by the end of 2008 under the French Presidency.
The level of effort for developing countries.

At the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol it was always foreseen that developing countries would, in the next commitment period, take further actions to reduce emissions. China and India were not forgotten in Kyoto – instead the UNFCCC principle of “taking the lead” was enacted. But now it is quite clear in the current negotiations that developing countries will have to take on “enhanced actions” that are “measurable, reportable and verifiable” to curb their emissions in the next phase. Currently under discussion are sectoral commitments and policies and measures.

The post-2012 agreement will need to provide incentives for the major economies to be ambitious, including expanded access to carbon finance and clean technology. Europe has prioritised climate and energy security in its bilateral relationships with key developing countries – for example during the visit to China in April 2008 by President Barroso and his Commissioners. It should encourage the United States to follow suit. Ensuring that the next US President approaches China from a perspective of interdependence rather than competition should be a top priority for Europe.